NFP on 2/2/07-what happened?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by pma, Feb 2, 2007.

  1. pma


    So the news came out-all negative for USD-NFP down,unemployment rate up,and average earnings down. So I am watching the Euro,and while it makes a small run up,stalls for a while then tanks. I thought for sure there would be a nice run to the upside. I am confused,please discuss.

  2. Revision for 2006... The year total was revised up by 414,000.

    Seems like the past 3-4 months the revision has been more important than the actual number (This time it was revised down but the yearly revision was more than enough to offset it).
  3. In an email from Ashraf Laidi of CMC, I got this news:
    "The softer than expected reading in the February payrolls triggered short-lived declines in the US dollar, until the dollar reversed its losses on rumors that the European Central Bank is considering halting its tightening cycle after an expected move in March to 3.75%."
  4. pma


    Thanks fellas!
  5. Nothing special happenned.
    A recurrent pattern of market reaction.
  6. same price action in bond market. =)
  7. sccz97


    not really, bonds and ir futures never dropped significantly below pre figure levels
  8. shows underlying bullish bias in bonds. When things like this happen, its 'traders poker'. It tends to confound everyone until, someone points out some meaningless fact or rationale why the market did what it did.

    so when bearish USD numbers came out, the market spiked bearishly. And bond market rates when down, price rallied, then some large houses decided to use the liquidity to cover for profits, then market spiked in the other direction creating the trend for the rest of the day.

    The same houses that took profit, will be buying into the people selling. It occurred about an hour after the news. The pre news low was protected. The same thing happened about hr later, but in some pairs the the pre news level stops were hit.
  9. compare gbp/usd and 30 year bond intraday charts. almost identical.
  10. misha7


    it for sure had nothing to do with benchmark revisions for 06 - those were known for several weeks.

    fx did appear to track the bond market on the occassion, in general a good thing to learn that market reaction does not evolve along "pre-determined" patters (i.e. data "good" for eur, eur goes up).
    #10     Feb 5, 2007