NFP number is a joke

Discussion in 'Economics' started by bond_trad3r, Jan 12, 2011.

  1. Unemployment at 9.4%.... 100k+ new jobs created...


    Look at the non-seasonally adjusted data

    Nov. 131,871
    Dec. 131,514

    There was a decrease of 357,000 jobs in December. Keep in mind that December is a month of heavy every hiring for temp workers due to the Christmas rush. Yet we still lost 357 thousand jobs !! How the adjusted data showed a 100k gain is complete and utter bull.

    The economy needs about 125k monthly in new job creation just to keep up with population growth. I truly feel bad for those who went to college, spent 100k on a useless degree, and now cant even get a job flipping burgers or cleaning toilets.
  2. TGregg


    But The One has "saved or created" some eleventeen gabillion jobs. I mean, how can you argue with that?
  3. Huh? Methinks you're somewhat mistaken...

    Seasonally unadjusted data for the previous years shows that the CES normally registers a decrease in total nonfarm employment between Nov and Dec. For example:
    2000 - decrease of 63k
    2001 - decrease of 389k
    2002 - decrease of 413k
    2003 - decrease of 182k
    2004 - decrease of 227k
    2008 - decrease of 1034k
    2009 - decrease of 521k

    See here for the data:

    So your interpretation of the seasonal adjustment is definitely wrong. Your conjecture regarding temp hiring is certainly inconsistent with the CES and may very well be wrong as well.
  4. olias


    I guess that ends that debate
  5. Bond Trader: Don't stress out man...LOL.

    It's all smoke and mirrors.
    looks as if the Bond Offering, or re-offering today went a little better than someone is buying into the SPIN. Just not you or I.
    However Corporate Bond prices do not seem real attractive at the current levels. Muni's are a "bomb" just waiting to go off.