NFP number is a joke

Discussion in 'Economics' started by bond_trad3r, Jan 12, 2011.

  1. Unemployment at 9.4%.... 100k+ new jobs created...

    Baloney!

    Look at the non-seasonally adjusted data
    http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

    Nov. 131,871
    Dec. 131,514

    There was a decrease of 357,000 jobs in December. Keep in mind that December is a month of heavy every hiring for temp workers due to the Christmas rush. Yet we still lost 357 thousand jobs !! How the adjusted data showed a 100k gain is complete and utter bull.

    The economy needs about 125k monthly in new job creation just to keep up with population growth. I truly feel bad for those who went to college, spent 100k on a useless degree, and now cant even get a job flipping burgers or cleaning toilets.
     
  2. TGregg

    TGregg

    But The One has "saved or created" some eleventeen gabillion jobs. I mean, how can you argue with that?
     
  3. Huh? Methinks you're somewhat mistaken...

    Seasonally unadjusted data for the previous years shows that the CES normally registers a decrease in total nonfarm employment between Nov and Dec. For example:
    2000 - decrease of 63k
    2001 - decrease of 389k
    2002 - decrease of 413k
    2003 - decrease of 182k
    2004 - decrease of 227k
    ...
    2008 - decrease of 1034k
    2009 - decrease of 521k

    See here for the data: ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.compaeu.txt

    So your interpretation of the seasonal adjustment is definitely wrong. Your conjecture regarding temp hiring is certainly inconsistent with the CES and may very well be wrong as well.
     
  4. olias

    olias

    I guess that ends that debate
     
  5. Bond Trader: Don't stress out man...LOL.

    It's all smoke and mirrors.
    looks as if the Bond Offering, or re-offering today went a little better than expected....so someone is buying into the SPIN. Just not you or I.
    However Corporate Bond prices do not seem real attractive at the current levels. Muni's are a "bomb" just waiting to go off.

    But hey....ALL IS GOOD IN THE HOOD BRUVA:D