Discussion in 'Stocks' started by iceman1, Sep 14, 2011.

  1. Ok. I have not traded NFLX ever. But I am sure some ETs do.

    I don't get this stock. I did a 4/1 call back-spread thinking there was an "outside chance" the stock might move up toward the earlier gap. I wasn't sure where the 'pinning' could or might occur although I had my doubts the stock would reach >220. Thus I did a 215/210.

    My plan was for the NDX to strengthen into triple witch; ergo this would propel NFLX (which I have not followed very much before this week) higher --- such that my spread would profit.

    So for 2-3 days sure enough the Nasdaq and NDX was strong; yet this POS is not higher??!

    Any sincere and non-sarcastic thoughts or comments from anyone who follows this equity and/or trades options on same as to whether they observed that NFLX does (or does not) ''typically' trade in tandem with the broader markets

  2. newwurldmn


    nflx has a very high short interest initiated by some pretty smart people.

    it's also been extremely volatile seeing prices of 160 and 250 in the last 1 year.

    there is a lot of controversy as to whether the online streaming is a good business model. the shorts have been blasted, but things can change easily.

    this is a name i would never be net short options in. it can be anywhere for a number of reasons.
  3. i have a bullish position; but in a market like today and yesterday this joke is not even higher.

    Looks like this will be the last time I trade options on this one.
  4. newwurldmn


    You are long 4 210s or long 4 215s? If you are bullish, the stock could be 235 tomorrow or 185. It's a firecracker.
  5. +4 Sept 215c
    - 1 Sept 210c

    i plan on rolling into October as I see NFLX trading above 230-35
  6. newwurldmn


    Interesting. In October, this spread costs about 27 dollars. So you can lose 32 dollars in the worst case. Why not just buy 27 dollars worth of 215 calls. Instead of doing a 1x4, why not just buy 2.5 of the 215 calls.

    Similar upside, easier to understand mark to market, less commissions, and better downside (albeit only slightly).
  7. unreal

    this stock is another nasdas joke.

    so after all these years I learned something - buy a lottery ticket on a POS like this. I could have bought (and thought about ti yesterday) sept 205p for 2.2.50 but figured with TWO days left it was not worth taking a shot with stock at 208.

    Gordon Gekko was right; you need to be inside to know when a move like this will occur so you can front run the inside information and make gains like this overnight. I did nto check yet what happened but someone knew about this information tt is causing this gap down.

    It just wasn't the suckers at the table.

    well that is why a back-spread keeps a loss to a manageable level. Next time I do puts and calls this kind of situation.
  8. newwurldmn


    These things happen. They preannounced some guidance about subscribers being lower than forecast. A high growth stock with a lot of retail investors and high short interest is a powder keg waiting to explode. Good you were long calls and not long stock.

    Like I said earlier, I would never be short an option in this name (and I love selling options).

    The stock could be 100 or 400 and be at entirely justifiable levels.
  9. hajimow


    1-They are losing the subscribers as they have increased the cost.
    2-Starz did not re-new its deal with NFLX so NFLX library of streamable movies are almost zero.
    3- RedBox is also expanding
    4- NFLX was already overvalued and was riding on the short squeeze factor and not its value

    Don't be surprised if NFLX is traded at $70 in Jan 2012
  10. newwurldmn


    Agreed. They could also get bought out by Google, Microsoft, Sony or a slew of AAPL competitors at 300. It's a name where anything can happen.
    #10     Sep 15, 2011