Discussion in 'Stocks' started by blox87, Apr 26, 2010.

  1. blox87

    blox87 Guest

    Bought at 45.... now it has gone parabolic to 109 today. How much koolaid could there be? Thinking of taking half off the table tomorrow just to be safe.
  2. NoDoji


    You've held it through at least 3 earnings calls without taking off any of it. If you weren't concerned about your safety then, why worry now that it's at all-time highs, gained almost 70% in less than 2 months right after being downgraded by multiple analysts last month, and has a 20% short interest to fuel more buying. There could be a LOT more koolaid. :D
  3. blox87

    blox87 Guest

    I'm worried now not because of what the self serving analysts say but because volume spiked higher than hell a couple days ago and I am afraid someone has a HUGE short position now. It was in my " buy and hold " portfolio so I haven't paid much attention to it before but now that I took a second look I think I better lock in some profit.

    I think it's time to take half off the table tomorrow.... Either way I made money.I'll add to my SLW position... that looks ready to break new highs soon...
  4. 108 now???? WTF. I bought this thing at 80.25 just when the earnings came out, sold at 82.75 ten seconds later.......I thought i was one smart-ass LOL. never looked at it since. This is TASR manipulated.
  5. blox87

    blox87 Guest

    Ok nvm, the volume was because of earnings duh. This stock has been doing great even through the 2008 debacle. In the great depression they said that the movie tickets didn't really suffer because people still needed entertainment in tough times. That is exactly why I bought this and it paid off.
  6. ptrjon


    when NFLX was at 104 I was about to buy a put but woosed out- not sure how far this can deflate- it's a great company with a limitted amount of float.
  7. Nice trade.

    I would definitely take some off the table. One of the big catalysts of this recent run was the fact that NFLX quite some time ago did a huge stock buy back on the cheap.

    Presently they only have a 43M float. So you can see how these huge run ups and gap downs ocur. At this very moment, its down $9 from the intraday high of the other day.

    Also NFLX might end up becoming its own best competitor. Because its focusing so much on streaming, allot of their customers are downgrading plans to the 1 at a time with unlimited streaming for only $8.99. This will result in lost revenues. It will be a challenging balance of obtaining new customers to offset this migration.

    Allot of folks all over the web are not happy and leaving NFLX with the recent shut out for all new releases with respect to both NFLX and Redbox. Blockbuster is the only place now where you can see Avatar, Its Complicated, Sherlock Holmes, etc. in the first month of release.

    You getting in when you did was near perfect timing. The last couple months a few folks have been bum rushing to snatch up shares to get on this band wagon. And with such a small float, you can see why the PPS has more than doubled from your entry point.
  8. ptrjon


    Really good thoughts. Also, if you reread my post- I was actually kicking myself for NOT buying the put.

    In reference to this, I think the more customers NFLX gets the better. Google had the same "plan" to get hits- and repeat users, without much revenue at the start.
  9. I missed your little observation on the float. Its amazing how NFLX moves intraday. Don't feel too bad about the put. The morning after their earnings announcement, when it opened flirting with $100. I was literally a mouse click away from getting near term $100 calls for like $1.80. Within 30 minutes the calls tripled. When NFLX moves, it happens so fast, you think well, it just went up $3, no way Im touching it now.

    Conversely though, it works the same way on the downside, as you found out the hard way not pulling the trigger on your puts.

    I think right now, this could be a fundamental shift. Meaning how many people are going to leave NFLX because they can not get new releases now until a month later? Plus Blockbuster actually has the same identical mail plans as NFLX does and NFLX charges $4 more for the same mail bluray plan. People just don't know it because blockbuster is not advertising yet.

    NFLX is gonna have to keep getting more customers in order to salvage the lost revenues from their new release defectors who are going back to blockbuster and the customers who are changing their $20 something dollar monthly plans down to the $8.99 per month plans with 1 at time + unlimited streaming.
  10. Now I understand your comment. My original post was actually directed to the OP and his question should he take it off the table from his $45 PPS entry. When I read your post, I immediately thought of those calls I missed as well. :mad:
    #10     Apr 28, 2010