I have studied atleast 10-15 past option expiry with daily/60 min charts.B I gamble big in the expiring options starting slowly from prevoius week thursday/Friday trade. First we have to see the price patterns in 3-4 time frame sub groups 1.Previous month 20-28th 2.last 3 trading days pf the previous month+first 3 trading day of this current month. 3.Then eiether up/sell off till 11th/12 th(thursday/friday of the week prevoius to option expiry) The game is 60% reverse what they did atleast up to 1 day before option expiry 20% continue the same trend (july sell off) 20% see saw 4 days & end flat. The pay off is 1:4 or higher or total loss (or most of it) I have instances where 0.10 OTM option 100 contract has become $0.50-$1/contract too. some months big pay off.some months scratch/loss too. Monday was scalping day in IWM calls/puts.But sold too soon in both directions. Tuesday/wednesday ppi/cpi might shake things (gaps)eiether way in 2 days time.(20 ES points) Daily charts suggest may continue down trend up to 1245 in ES.No serious view but scale in/scale out watching 3/5/15/30 min charts. option week is the most important week of my trading.Eiether I blow up what I made like a squirrel in the other 3 weeks or I will have a big smile by Friday noon. You can guess which is more often! LOL!
Hope the chart up loads. In my past experience the histogram has to reverse direction at the end of the day to see a solid up trend next day. It has not done till Mondayclose.may be cpi/ppi will give a monster up/down day. scene 1:Tuesday steep down & reverse?then wed/thursday up& friday flat. scene 2: tuesday first up & then sell off towards the close,continue big sell off till thursday 3pm,friday kind of fizzle out? scene 3:solid up trend for tues/weds/thursday & friday give back 20% of the gains. so may way dice can rolll!
Tuesday-solid up scenerio played out till close due to so called ppi. Tomorrow PPI/oil inventory reports -how the dice will roll-gap down? or continue rally? scalped IWM(russel 2000) both ways.but have taken a small bet against IWM at the close.(70 aug put) Eiether gap up/gap down will seal it's fate!
Yep just like I said up up up, Fed is out of the way, markets will surge heading into the elections this fall, crooked politics are rigging the game. I am just glad I know how to play he game. The party in power will say look at the markets folks see how strong everything is. Just pay no attention to gasoline prices, and you home electric bill, just look at the stock market wheee.
Crude is in the process of "cracking" . . . Very helpful for the market leadership broadening out! 10-year note now at 4.87
Sure is some wimpy volume in the US Index futures Dow Mini 84k today, 92k yesterday. Pretty wimpy indeed.