If i`m able to attract up to $2M and with all the facts such as: "Saudi oil production peaked in 2008 at 9.5 million barrels per day and will never reach that level again, and has raised its 2012 forecast price to $140 per barrel." What are the best possible options to gamble on this?
guess shoulda elaborated more on 'options',sorry yes,i meant to say to use all the available quality information to make such a bet.remember how it was with gold?the price level around $800 where you could`ve loaded as much as you could get,including your underwear and bet. price was never touched this level,since then.but you have to have this kind of information.i believe that someone holds that kind information and in regards to oil-knows exactly the level that price will never touch(below)in the near future.also,the instruments to bet on this,futures, etfs, stocks...something that you can hold for months and with no or low cost. i know i can do my search and find it out on my own,but it`s never too bad to listen some good opinions from the more xp traders.
I'm bullish, but I think Saudi wants $75 crude. At that price, they make fantastic profits (I think breakeven is around $18), the whole world works and their substantial investments in business world wide makes money. So for me getting long now requires deep pockets enough to ride it down to $60. So speaking of options, I'm looking at option strategys. Something other than just going long calls, because although nothing would surprise me, the possibility of it hanging out here between 90 and 100 looks likely simply because thats what it's been doing.
Short term prices swings will continue in the $80 - $? range (possibly $140. that's entirely within the reasonable near term range.) What determines the price over time is whether it's high enough to make development of new fields worthwhile or not. Drilling always increases when prices are high and subsides when prices dip. Consider that there is still vast amounts of as yet undiscovered oil in the Earth's crust. So this pattern should continue throughout your lifetime, in spite of the greatly increased rate of consumption in developing countries. In developed countries the rate of consumption per capita is dropping, but it is growing dramatically in developing countries. Incidentally, the BP find in the Gulf of Mexico is huge!!! Much larger than people realize.
See thats the thing, as of now, I think oil is a fantastic long term bet. But who knows how long that will last if we find out Peak Oil becomes a myth in a couple years. I think grains is another good long term bet. Avg age of a farmer is 50 something and there is an ever growing increase in demand for food. Jim rogers is usually right on these long term plays and he says farmers will be richer than bankers lol
No kidding. Have you ever noticed at $80 we're running out and at $100 we suddenly have a vast supply of undeveloped resources. Same thing over in the gold mkt. At $1200 suddenly there is no longer a finite supply. But that makes a pretty good case for a floor in here around $100. In my uneducated opinion, demand is related more to population than developed vs undeveloped.
at $60 CL I think you would see a dramatic drop in the price of beans and grains. Just out of curiosity, what's the average age of a banker?
Are you more bullish on Oil than on Gold? If you are, do you know that you might also have implicitely predicted the end of the down turn in the silent economic depression?