My opinion is that these solar plays are in a bubble stage much like the ethanol stocks were in a bubble stage last year. Each year, one sector takes its turn being in a bubble. This year its solar. I can say, with a reasonable amount of confidence, that probably by the end of this year your favorite solar stocks will not be trading at much. I would view the solar stocks as trading vehicles and get out Dodge when the bubble finally pops. As for the popularity of solar cells, I do not see them used in my area. If they are used, then its done discreetly. I dont see solar panels on buildings or houses. I heard someone on television say they are used in Europe. I dunno. The solar bubble will bust. Its all about when.
You are correct for the most part, these stocks are being valued at ludicrous P/E ratios. There is a lot of hype and rah rah investors. But the dynamics behind the industry are ones of 20-50 year horizons. And while you do not see anything in your neighborhood, there is a lot happening even in US. The fact is that by the time you even see 25% penetration of solar, it is wayyy too late to start looking for a solar stock as a great investment. Unlike ethanol, which is a total scam, solar has real numbers behind it.
Here's a link to a listing of Alt. Energy stocks. You may find something you like here: http://www.altenergystocks.com/stocks.html
We shall see...I have heard this same story over and over for so many sectors over the years. Making serious cash in the market is all about figuring out which sector will be in the bubble this year. Homebuilders, tech, exchanges, etc. They all bubble up and come right back down. I see these stocks as nothing more then a trading vehicle rather then a long-term investment.
>> Ahem! Why is Hydro not talking to me? >> DLSL Deli Solar Usa Inc (OTC BB) 4.00 +1.13 ( +39.37%) Open 2.95 High 4.49 Low 2.95 Love Stoney!
A great wind play is ZOLT. If you doubt wind, you should read a little about these two European companies: Vestas and Gamesa.
Well, solar is like biotech IMO... the promise is THERE... but the biggest biggest question is...will the companies that pushed the limits be around for the payoff? You aren't buying the idea, you are buying the PROFITS from the idea in the market. People have a tendency to forget that. During 1999, everyone was buying ideas. Thus the dot-coms, telecoms, biotech frenzy. Biotech companies were pushed past $100, who hadn't made a penny. So what were really 'hot' stocks? 2 examples: PLUG - was in prototype design for personal home electricity generation via fuel cells. BLDP - prototype fuel cell CARS. Results: 1999 both companies were up to $100/shr 2007 both companies are hovering $5 a shr Did fundamentals change that much? No. What's going on? BLDP DID prototype... and SOLD fuelcells to Honda even... the new Honda FCX is built with BLDP fuel cells and concepts... why is BLDP still at $5.69 today? Because Honda is developing its OWN fuel cells now... and BLDP's patents are on the border of their 17 year expiration. Other car manufacturers are now seriously looking at Fuel cells too... what's going on with BLDP? Here we go with Turner, DeLaurean, Howard Hughes car making all over again... Because a company has the promise, doesn't mean they have the backing to develop it profitably. Doesn't mean their ideas won't get stolen and become profitable... for someone else. Keep that in mind when buying the promise. That said, I bought PBW this week. It's a bellweather basket. I feel safer with a basket, where only 1 or 2 have to payoff. In the meantime, wait for the next microsoft of solar to emerge... and you will NEVER know this far in advance who it will be. Would anyone have believed that MSFT could CRUSH Netscape as easily and definitively as they did back in 1985? No. Or Apple back in 1990? Apple is making $$ with IPOD now, but it was a long time coming.
Won't anyone come out say how great a trade this was? Did not a soul join me! I'm holding and watching a good portion of it be given back.