Not true. The major Chinese commodity exchanges have been around for almost 20 years. Volumes in major international commodities (like soybean) is huge, and matches the CME. Index futures are new, and derivatives are new... that's certainly true. But let's make sure we understand one thing: the debate in the US over financial reform is whether it's even needed. There are numerous stake holders in the US who will move mountains in order to obstruct any further reforms from the current system. In contrast, there's not a single market regulator/participant in China who isn't working towards constant reform, and introduction of all of the financial tools available in the west. So, when we're talking 20-30 years in the future... how can you not be optimistic?
I like this sentence. China will redefine what the market is and that market will be called a market in Chinese characteristics (i.e., a market full of corruption).
If you trade stocks, you will not believe anything beyond 20 years. 1 year is called long term, 5 years is the infinity, anything beyond 5 years is just for imagination. When people start to be optimistic about things 20-30 years in the future, this is called the beginning of a bubble.
One of us is in the the wrong thread. I didn't notice there being a lot of "stock trading" tips being tossed around. A thread discussing the "next financial center" has nothing to do with trading stocks, and certainly requires an imagination that extends beyond the next 5 years. And no, I don't think informed, optimistic evaluation of a country's economic prospects is equivalent to "the beginning of a bubble". But maybe you can argue with Warren Buffet about that.
No convertible currency, and no stock index futures yet in Shanghai. Hong Kong combined with Shenzhen will remain #1 in my opinion. Singapore has no shot, it will always be a nice place to live, but no way it will ever rival Hong Kong or Shanghai.
Come on, China must have done something right in the past 30 years, otherwise there wouldn't be any rapid economic development. I don't believe US will screw up. However Shanghai being a financial center is not at expense of NYC. The world might well need three big financial centers:london, NYC and Shanghai
Singapore is a nice place to live? What you are talking about? have you been there? it is freaking hot in summer. it is very small and it is a terrible place to live.
I think Hong Kong's relevance will drop quickly. It's primary advantage right now is that the Chinese capital markets aren't fully open, but that advantage will fade with time. Stock index futures trading starts next month, in Shanghai.
shanghai is very hot in summer too, and singapore is quite clean and safe, wheras shanghai is very chaotic, too many people, and everyone is spitting and shoving