I wanted to start a thread about the next big energy bubble. We know the world needs power. Looking 10/20 years down the line where are we going. Oil is a safe bet until it runs out (when who knows maybe they keep finding more). Is environ stuff increasing? (when will the planet overheat enuff to take notice?) We have Wind/Tidal/Solar. What about nuclear/uranium? Any thoughts?
First post on this site, and I'm definitely not the most educated, but anyways... My thoughts (and hopes) are that ultimately the fear will subside and people will realize how incredibly safe and efficient nuclear power has become. In terms of power plants, this is what we need. Very clean, very efficient, very renewable, very safe. My guess, however, is that the planning stages for a "nuclear America" are still probably 20-30 years down the line. I personally also feel that hydrogen is the other source we will need to use. The reason for this is current cars can be converted to hydrogen cars (relatively) easily, as the engine works in a very similar way. Two key problems exist: 1) Currently, producing hydrogen consumes more energy than the hydrogen itself will. 2) Currently, we have no safe way of storing hydrogen in car and truck fuel tanks, etc. I do feel that once these issues become pressing enough, solutions will arise for both problems. On the flip side, another, and possibly more realistic, scenario would be that of wind/solar/hydro/nuclear plants, high-speed commuter trains (local, regional, and national), and small electric cars. It seems the stimulus, current government policy, and overall public opinion seem to support this idea more. Now for the next energy bubble...I can only hope to guess.
Oil is a safe bet until it runs out PEAK OIL IS A THEORY, ONLY A THEORY. Do some research on what a SOURCE ROCK IS. One of the largest "SOURCE ROCK" is the BAKKEN SHALE, where Bringham just had a well come on line at 4000 barrels a day. Projections are 3.8 Billion Barrels of Oil and 1.7 Trillion Cubic Feet of Gas are sitting in the formation, while it continues to make more. The energy buble is going to be the lack of supply for the world demand in the next 5 years. Why is it that China is buying up 17 Billion dollars worth of production in Africa, Brazil, Argentina and Iraq? ( It's more than a hedge on the dollar). Ask your self why INDIA just announced it will start Explortory drilling domestically ASAP. Why is that ASS CLOWN of a Socialist Leader called OBAMA spending "YOUR" tax money on Brazil's new oil find? Loaning Brazil money to develope her new find, your fucking tax money! Both China and India are showing their Hands at the world Energy Table. So, lets see how most investors play their hand. Many will play the wrong hand only to see their money washed down the drain in Equities, saving accounts and CDs. But then again, not everyone can win. Alternitive Energies...PIPE DREAM. Just ask BOON who lost 2 billion on the Wind Farm down here in Texas. It will be decades before any "Alternitive Energy" will contribute more than 5% of our energy source. Most likely play, Natural Gas taking a bigger % of a source to decrease the demand for oil.
The Stone Age did not end because of the lack of stones, and the Oil Age won't end because of lack of oil. What most people outside of the Oil industry don't understand is that the word "peak" doesn't mean "The end". The world is not running out of oil itself, but rather its ability to produce high-quality cheap and economically extractable oil on demand. And this a Real problem worldwide and will get worse. OIl Peak is a Reality in some countries like the US and Mexico. Mexico's Cantarell Oil Field (the largest one in that country) makes for a pretty compelling case study from a peak oil point of view. If we were talking about a peak oil production rate of 2.113 million barrels per day back in 2004, and an estimated 800 kbpd or 0.8 mbpd in 2009, that makes for a staggering rate of decline of 62% in the past 5 years or so. Hence it is not too hard to imagine a production collapse of over 90% in the next 7 years - or less. On the Other hand, Back in 2001-2002 the US was prodicing over 8,5 Million barrels per day, Today the US production levels hit the 5,4 millions barrel per day, It is a Big production drop for the world's largest consumer of oil. Kuwait is having the same problems, The peak output of the Burgan oil field will now be around 1.7 million barrels per day, and not the three million barrels per day forecast for the rest of the field's 30 to 40 years of life. Burgan has been pumping oil for almost 60 years and accounts for more than half of Kuwait's proven oil reserves. Burgan was the 2 largest oil field in the world 4 years ago. Oil production in 33 out of 48 out countries has now peaked, including Kuwait, Russia, Mexico and some regions in S. Arabia. Global oil production is now also approaching an all time peak. The FED usd policy doesn't help either. Over the next 5 to 10 years things can get pretty nasty, and I can see two scenarios.. 1-The world get into a very long recession and the price of crude oil drops to the 80's and 90's levels. 2- A Very Very ugly War. (this one have more probability to become real)