Next Day Pricing

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Dave at NextDay, Apr 23, 2010.

  1. We all know how bad news can make the market take a sudden dive, but despite all the events of the past week, including the constant news in Greece, the market keeps following the old adage that it keeps going up until what...until it doesn't.

    My up numbers today for the cash S&P are 1213.55, 1218.33 & 1223.11. The premarket looks mixed, so the top number is not in play and even the 1218.33 isn't either, but I never say never until I see my internal strength numbers just after the open. Any strength to the upside is going to get us to 1218.33. Obviously, remember the June contract discount.

    To the downside, the nearby cash S&P number is 1205.56. If you're a buyer and it sells down to that cash level, that could be a good pickup. It's Friday, so I'm not expecting much. The overnight did nothing but bang on yesterday's closing range high, so the technicians are at work momentarily. All for now.
  2. Forgot to give the rest of the down numbers: 1200.77 & 1195.99. My internals are mediocre, which is actually a positive, so I'm not expecting that even the 1200.77 is a challenge. The low number is off my board for today.
  3. I thought it might be a good idea to attach my intraday chart of my price forecasts during the day from time to time. I had a little trouble yesterday attaching a chart, so hopefully the attachment should be at the bottom of this post for your review.
  4. InAndOut


    you said "To the downside, the nearby cash S&P number is 1205.56."

    Right on, SPX hit that on 9:44 and bounced back up. Also the 1213.55, hit on 10:12 with 1213.42, very close.

    Keep the amazing work.

  5. These targets are meant to be good approximations, as oftentimes the market will aggregate around the forecasts within a point or so, sometimes hanging for a good period of time, but mostly hitting and then moving away. As I've mentioned, these price points are completely detached from previous price congestion levels. You'll notice that circumstance, obviously, when you're at brand new levels where there are no nearby historic price levels which you can easily reference.

    Once the targets are reached, they do in fact become their own P/R levels, as I've mentioned. This also brings up the point as to why I'm making my live webinar website free for Elite Trader members. The complement to the targets is my live internal strength number. It relates to the targets in that there are many days where the targets are reached, hangs around a bit, then begins moving away, only to contract back. I'm able to determine those types of situations ahead of time with the internal strength. The only way to stay on top of that real time is to jump on to my GotoMeeting webinar. I'm planning on being live each day starting next Monday. I don't want $$ to be a deterrent to having that study available live the market. All for now.
  6. InAndOut...I'm logging on to my webinar right now. If you're available, log in to your nextdaypricing account and hit the Trading link in the left hand toolbar and under that go to the Price Targets Webinar link which will bring up a GoToWebinar window. Just fill in the appropriate text boxes and let's see what happens. If you have trouble, just email me at and we'll try to put this together. If I don't see/hear from you within the next hour or so, I'll log off.
  7. I've attached a pic of my valuation study. The point of this is that we're getting into an overvalued situation. That does NOT mean that price action necessarily has to go lower from here. It has, however, historically shown prices, if moving higher, to go at a slower pace.

    If a market is strong, prices can move slightly higher, then have a modest sell off, or simply go sideways. During that price action, the valuation model can move back down to a lower standard. If that is the current situation, the mistake a lot of traders make is to wait for a sell off because "the market is way overbought", and the next move isn't down but the next leg up.

    All that said, I don't personally care whether the market goes up or down from here. The only thing I'm looking for is my next high probability entry which provides the least amount of time and price risk. That typically occurs once the study is back below 1 standrard.

    The graphic is set up with three horizontal lines, 2 red and 1 dashed green. The reds are the upper & lower 1 standard respectively; the green is the mean. The jagged red line is my calculation of the underlying valuation of the market. Obviously, it's proprietary and doesn't need to be understood in and of itself, but only to say that it is a consistently reliable reversion to the mean study. At least it's been reliable for me personally.

    The yellow and blue are simple smoothed averages. I like to see, depending on which direction I'm attempting to set (in this current market, obviously long), both smoothed get below 1 standard and then show a shift of momentum by crossing over.

    I don't necessarily wait for a crossover. If the valuation takes a dive and at the same time hits my lower target for the day, as it did around the 1190 level on the 22nd, I'll take the long position.

    All for now. Gone for the rest of the day.
  8. Once again, I don't see the attachment on my last post, so I'll try again.