Next Crash Scheduled for 2nd Quarter 2021?

The difference now is during prior crashes there was a flight to safety and yield in bonds. Now there is zero yield so where does that money go?
It’s not going to sit idly in cash I can tell you that.
So that’s the great riddle. Can we really have a crash and bear market (2000-2002) with ZIRP and never ending QE??

 

wait, so if there’s no safety flight then maybe the cash will just cycle through equities until there is a flight to safety worth flowing to? Or?

 

Banks, for one, can't really carry a lot of equities on their balance sheet; see the Volcker Rule. Plenty of other toys they can play with - bonds, swaps, CPDOs, market-making, etc. - but it would take higher-quality sources than anything available to us retails to track it.

But yeah, it's a question that's been cycling in the back of my mind. I'm extremely skeptical of that moronic hook used by trading "gurus" - "just follow the big money! Let me show you how!" - but having at least some clue of where things are moving would be useful. And now that the QE fire selector has been set to full auto and JPOW is keeping the trigger down, that picture has become a lot muddier.

 

It's clear as day to me!

 

they can still speculate on higher bond prices, the interest rate isn't all they care for. And in a worst case scemario a Dollar at the govt is still more secure then in a meddium quality equity

 

I think recent market behavior has conditioned people to see any selloff as a buying opportunity. But what if we get a decades long roll over not unlike what happened in Japan? The market always seems to do its best at getting the most people on the wrong side of a trade.

 

absolutely. After last years, everyone is sure market only goes up. Dip are great buying opportunity.

 

Fed has given them every reason to do so. Add in the leverage effect of call options (brokers having to hedge) and some shorts beeing to early getting squeezed and you get the perfect meltup.

 

You mean like the one poster Schizo insisted we were in last March within days of the bottom ? Why expect the worst outcome in the strongest markets ?