I think the next big thing will be Chinese collateralized debt obligations traded on a dot com selling South Sea-bound cargo carrying tulips for alternative energy (cellulosic ethanol).
Just had a discussion with a fellow trader last night re the topic of whats hot in a recession. It's sex toys! According to a friend of his who sells these things, this "industry" is booming right now and is virtually recession proof. If we add liquor and cigarettes into the mix we get a perfect recession protector package. Will sex toys become a bubble? Only if the democrats win in November. Republicans believe in abstinence.
I think Paul Volkers observation that economic growth in the next decade will be very weak, just beter than the thirties, will prove correct. THe next ten years will be the opposite of the last ten years.
economic growth may be low but i bet you stocks rally their asses off once we are through this. 99/100 people you ask will say yea we are going to have a 10 year bear market etc.. this means we are prolly not going to have an equity bear and are going to rally hard soon if history is anything to go by...
Resource markets are in a secular bull trend. The current downturn is simply a correction and in a few years we'll be saying they are in a bubble again. I have read that 85% of cars sold in China last year were for cash, housing ditto. Former communist states similar, at least when it comes to housing. Can you imagine market conditions as modern credit markets engulf the masses? Regards, GC
no more bubbles...World is going to end in 2012. The maya said so in their calendar. And they can be trusted because they built a really cool pyramid.