News You Can Use

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Brandonf, Jul 8, 2002.

  1. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Fairly typical morning with the news stocks...usually 1 to 3 will give setups and trades. Today trades are in MENT from $9.65 long, and OVER short from 24.25 (still open).

    I tend to not really look at anything any more after 10:30 or 11cst until about 2cst...I found that between that time if I did not trade I would be over 60% more profitable.

    #11     Jul 8, 2002
  2. LelandC



    Good thread going here. I too play a lot of news plays. Not much going on today however. The market just seems kind of weird to me for some reason. Really can't put a finger on it either....

    #12     Jul 8, 2002
  3. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    The Trade

    [08:29] <brandon> 08:30:54 cst DAY TRADE: (Based on daily and intraday setups. Holding period = several minutes to several hours. Closed by end of day) BUY SETUP SP above 987.5
    [08:30] <brandon> 08:31:19 cst DAY TRADE UPDATE: SP stops under 985.25
    [08:33] <brandon> 08:34:29 cst DAY TRADE UPDATE: SP has setup
    [08:36] <brandon> 08:37:08 cst DAY TRADE UPDATE: SP trailing stop 990.25
    [08:37] <brandon> 08:38:12 cst DAY TRADE UPDATE: SP take remaining profits
    [08:37] <brandon> 08:38:19 cst DAY TRADE UPDATE: SP 993.75

    Trade Logic
    [10:09] <brandon> ok this is the five minute SP chart
    [10:09] <brandon> as you can see we had a nice morning uptrend
    [10:09] <brandon> so trading with the trend
    [10:10] <brandon> we have a long bias
    [10:10] <brandon> also, the gap down was about 5 points
    [10:10] <brandon> which is about an average gap
    [10:10] <brandon> and we know that "average" gaps will fill in 71% of the time
    [10:10] <brandon> so overall
    [10:10] <brandon> good odds for us to work with
    [10:10] <brandon> now
    [10:10] <brandon> just because it has a 71% chance of filling in
    [10:10] <brandon> thats not a reason to jump right in and buy
    [10:11] <brandon> because there might not be support until 20 points lower (extreme example..but you get the idea)
    [10:11] <brandon> so just beause you have that one figure
    [10:11] <brandon> doesnt mean you can always act on it.
    [10:11] <brandon> but in this case
    [10:11] <brandon> we had good support with the 200ma
    [10:11] <brandon> we know that the 200ma is really the king of all MA's
    [10:11] <brandon> and one to be respected always
    [10:11] <brandon> it tends to stop things dead in their tracks
    [10:12] <brandon> and its one of the strongest support areas there is
    [10:12] <brandon> so when the SP opened just slightly above the 200ma
    [10:12] <brandon> we know that there is a good support area we can work with
    [10:12] <brandon> I always like to have a bit of confirmation before i jump in
    [10:12] <brandon> so we used the prior pivot high break
    [10:13] <brandon> and when that was taken out
    [10:13] <brandon> our long was taken
    [10:13] <brandon> keep in mind
    [10:13] <brandon> that the prior pivot highs can be too far away and your risk too wide in most cases
    [10:13] <brandon> but in the morning momentum is stronger
    [10:13] <brandon> so you can use prior pivots
    [10:13] <brandon> we once that was broken
    [10:13] <brandon> and after a bit of slopping around
    [10:13] <brandon> the market took off for us
    [10:14] <brandon> one of the major areas that people neglect in their trading
    [10:14] <brandon> and "educators" never like to talk about is exits
    [10:14] <brandon> but if you would refer to our exits class
    [10:15] <brandon> the circled area where we sold
    [10:15] <brandon> is a great example of an exhaustion move
    [10:15] <brandon> and these tend to mark tops and bottoms
    [10:15] <brandon> which in this case held true
    #13     Jul 8, 2002
  4. BRANDON: GREAT POSTS. I have only traded futures past two years but your posts make me realize that proper interpretation of news can make for some fantastic stock trades several times a month. THANKS
    #14     Jul 8, 2002
  5. BRANDON: I am pretty sure you run a room somewhere and if you have a premarket news trading service I would be interested in subscribing,
    #15     Jul 8, 2002
  6. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Congrats to everyone who benefited from the News You Can Use. I had a lot of nice comments about it. The best thing to do is to use the first pivot highs and lows to enter the position. I have an in depth class in the members section of my site, Ill try to come up with an abrvieted version to post here in the next few weeks. It might take me that long coz Toni is out of town for a few Im swamped. Anyway, MENT and OVER both gave nice gains. The key to using the news is to use it against the people who havent a clue. Enjoy your evening.

    #16     Jul 8, 2002
  7. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    #17     Jul 8, 2002
  8. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    **Mandalay Resorts Group (MBG):** was upgraded by CSFB. We, however, know that strip clubs in Las Vegas (as well as the Casino's) are dead right now. Also, the stock is in a downtrend and has rallied for a few days against that trend to resistence. Look to short weakness.

    ScanSoft, Inc (SSFT): The company announced last night that they expect to meet or exceed estimates for earnings. Look to short weakness.

    Chico's FAS, Inc (CHS): The company reports a 15% increase in June comps. The stock, however, appears to be rolling over a bit. Look to short weakness.

    #18     Jul 9, 2002
  9. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    United Microelectronics (UMC): The company reports a +58% increase in June sales, beating estimantes. The stock could go either way, but Id favor an upside breakout due to the fact that its holding its gap well from a few days ago. Look to buy on strength.

    Siebel Systems, Inc (SEBL): The stock has coverage opened by Bear Sterns and they rate it as "unattractive". On the weekly chart the stock is in a double bottom area, on the intraday its at some gap support. Look to buy strength.

    Asyst Technologies (ASYT): Merril has downgraded a number of names in the semi conductor sector this morning. Of those stocks, ASYT has had the best recent relative strength. Look for buying opportunities on strength.

    Good Luck Today.

    #19     Jul 9, 2002
  10. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Add JNY as a stock to watch for shorting opty.

    #20     Jul 9, 2002