News dissemination only. If I could go back and trade again...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by applejuice, Dec 8, 2016.

  1. Why would your odds any worse than 50/50 going into extreme events?
     
    #11     Dec 9, 2016
  2. comagnum

    comagnum

    because the volatility is extreme whipsawing around. Sure, anyone can go casino mode. I don't know of any long term traders that made it very long going casino mode - bey hey, have fun - go for it. Anyone that thinks doubling there money in extreme volatility is a walk in a park is talking BS.
     
    #12     Dec 9, 2016
  3. garachen

    garachen

    I'm talking about trading dislocations. Not taking a position of long or short. Not gambling. Not "casino mode".

    I manually did hundreds of trades on each of those events. Churning tens of thousands of contracts.

    In 2008, 2009 this stuff was more common. So it's really fun when it happens again.
     
    #13     Dec 9, 2016
    trickshot likes this.
  4. just21

    just21

    Trade the US yield curve in the evenings. CBOT is open until 10pm GMT. You can get an account direct with TT for $50 for software or use IB TWS mosaic for free. You can even lease a seat to get lower clearing with IB.
     
    #14     Dec 10, 2016
  5. This is interesting. How do you define a "trading dislocation"? Do you simply define it as one instrument trading out of kilter with respect to another and betting on a convergence?
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2016
    #15     Dec 12, 2016
  6. garachen

    garachen

    That's more for typical everyday trading. During really crazy events the levels of panic are several orders of magnitude higher. So you wouldn't trade normal dislocations because they are way too extreme and correlations become heavily lagged.

    But you can trade the panic. Watching panic spread from one instrument to another. And you can be pretty accurate guessing what's going to happen during different time frames.
     
    #16     Dec 13, 2016
    Zr1Trader likes this.
  7. easymon1

    easymon1

    Sequential instrument price reaction during a market dislocation -- a quick and dirty outline /example from a particular instrument chain and era would be most excellent if one comes to mind.

    Timing.jpg
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2016
    #17     Dec 14, 2016
  8. Agree that the pressure would definitely be too great, that is also why traders who are undercapitalised tend to do very poorly over the long run. Its very tough to make money trading when one is under tremendous pressure to make the few bucks just to pay the bills.
     
    #18     Dec 14, 2016
  9. Extreme volatility results in mispriced instruments e.g options. For example several ETFs were mispriced during the Aug meltdown last year, the algos were switched off pre-market and there were simply no buyers for the triggered stops.
     
    #19     Dec 14, 2016

  10. The other day with FOMC announcing rate hike and possibly 3 more next year , tsy's had a big reaction fairly quickly, took gold and silver a while to follow. Took a bit but silver ended up dumping big later . Just an observation. Perhaps this is a bit of what you are talking about.
     
    #20     Dec 16, 2016