Hello, What are the principal reports/news that can move the meat markets( cattle, feeders, hogs, bellies )? What are those that can be anticipated and where do I find their dates? Are the "Livestock and meat trade data" and "meat price spreads" reports from USDA important? Thanks a lot.
1) The "usual suspects": Cattle on Feed, Quarterly Hog & Pig, slaughter numbers, cold storage, the monthly USDA Grain report, longer-term price cycles, large downdays in the stock market, herd liquidation, extreme hot or cold weather forecasts. 2) Futures calendar-spreads can have "value". 3) Electronic, screen-based, trading seems to be attracting more speculative traders who tend to look at the same "indicators" meaning the markets may behave more predictably compared to the pit. 4) The USDA and brokerage firms should have calendars available.
Thanks Nazzdack, I checked the release dates and it seems all those reports are released at 8:30 am or 3 PM ET, so it is outside the pit session. I will study their impacts on overnight trading.
1) One news source I keep an eye on said it was because of "selling"......well duh! 2) There was a Cattle-On-Feed Report after the close. Somebody may have known the report may be bearish and sold-short cattle AND hogs. 3) The report aside, when a market is making contract highs on a Friday and loses momentum during the day, be on the lookout for a big reversal from "hot money" who can sense the loss of momentum and downside vulnerability. 4) If you like chart patterns, today was a "proper" location for a Key-Outside-Down day with the higher opening and lack of followthru at contract highs. We'll see if it can take out today's lows on Monday. :eek:
Thanks for these valuable informations. I thought it might be linked to cattle on feed. One other question : What exactly make this report bearish? Production is down 4 % from one year ago and we are going into the consumption period of the summer... Production was expected to be down more than that? Here is a little excerpt: "U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 4 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.8 million head on April 1, 2010. The inventory was 4 percent below April 1, 2009. The inventory included 6.71 million steers and steer calves, down 4 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 62 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.02 million head, down 3 percent from 2009. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.86 million, 3 percent above 2009. Net placements were 1.80 million head. During March, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 395,000, 600-699 pounds were 375,000, 700-799 pounds were 602,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 485,000. Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 1.90 million, 4 percent above 2009. Other disappearance totaled 60,000 during March, 20 percent above 2009. This is the second lowest other disappearance for the month of March since the series began in 1996."
1) It helps to have an idea of what expectations are for the report. 2) You can attempt to "divine" that information from cash market data. 3) It can help to know what normally/seasonally tends to happen each month of the year to get an idea if cattle are "moving" slowly or quickly. 4) The market can "shrug off" a report at price extremes. Today, Monday, ought to be interesting.