By flipping a coin for choosing to go long or short will yield a break even outcome in the long run....minus commissions and associated trading costs. When you put on your trade, you have to set your risk/reward the same. If you want to win $100, you set your stop loss to -$100. Since trading is essentially 50/50 (minus costs), you only have to develop a way to give yourself a slight edge. Can you tip the scales in your favor by 5%? Can you make it 55/45? If you can, you'll make money. Everything that you could learn, be it technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or psychology boils down to a method for you to enter a trade with a small edge. That's all trading is about. The more you complicate things, the harder you're making trading for yourself. Keep your risk/reward the same, and work on your entry. It's only 1 factor you need to worry about. Your entry.