Newbie Edge

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dnaj65000, Jan 26, 2007.

  1. By flipping a coin for choosing to go long or short will yield a break even outcome in the long run....minus commissions and associated trading costs.

    When you put on your trade, you have to set your risk/reward the same. If you want to win $100, you set your stop loss to -$100.

    Since trading is essentially 50/50 (minus costs), you only have to develop a way to give yourself a slight edge. Can you tip the scales in your favor by 5%? Can you make it 55/45? If you can, you'll make money.

    Everything that you could learn, be it technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or psychology boils down to a method for you to enter a trade with a small edge. That's all trading is about.

    The more you complicate things, the harder you're making trading for yourself. Keep your risk/reward the same, and work on your entry. It's only 1 factor you need to worry about. Your entry.
  2. laptop


    oh really

    sure on paper it all looks nice, but try to apply it

    I would really like to watch you trade with 60/40 strategy

    I wold sit back and wait for you to amass fortune

    it would take you 500 years, because you would have to do it safely with small positions

    cause hey, you are 60/40

    I trade with 75% accuracy on futures with tight losses

    and I trade with 80% accuracy on forex with tight losses

    so you go ahead and compare that to 60/40 which would force you to use very small positions, so you don't blow up
  3. not 50/50 if you keep longing weak stock and shorting strong stock cause odds are in favor of one particular direction.
  4. mtb4u


    Although I'm not a trader, I do have a bit of experience with mathematics, and this 50/50 conclusion is absolutely ludicrous.
    The analysis it would take to prove such a claim is ludicrous.
    The time-evidence it would take to enforce such analysis is ludicrous.
    Without splitting hairs, his advice is that sound judgment (i.e. techincal analysis et al), with whatever associated probability of correctness, is the only way to tip the odds - a bit of advice I value for future reference.
  5. If your a day trading make 10-12 trades daily, you can do quite well batting 60%
  6. you are a noob if you thinking trading is 50/50