anyway , here is the summery so far : Index vols at the time of the entry =16 , basket's weighted vols=24. Index move +.90% , basket weighted ABS move=3.8%. Current PnL ( based on intrinsic value at exp) --> +5.3%
I found an interesting paper on DAX FTSE correlation trade. An excerpt here: In order take advantage of extreme positions in the implied volatility spread, there are a number possible ways to structure a trade which would be expected to profit from any subsequent mean reversion of the spread. Assuming a current high reading of the spread, defined as DAXIV/FTSEIV, i.e.: DAX implied volatility is high in comparison to its usual position relative to FTSE implied volatility, then one of following trade structures may be considered: 1. Long volatility outright: Simply Buy FTSE Options. If we were seeking to buy options cheaply we could consider buying calls (if bullish), puts (if bearish), or straddles (for an outright volatility exposure) on just the FTSE. 2. Take in cash: Buy FTSE straddles Sell DAX straddles. To benefit from the current wide implied volatility spread between the FTSE and the DAX, we could buy FTSE straddles and sell DAX straddles. Because FTSE implied volatility is lower, it would be expected that for the same notional amount, the cost of the FTSE straddle would be less than that of the proceeds from the DAX straddle. 3. Zero-Cost Strategy: Buy FTSE straddles, Sell DAX straddles but with limited downside risk. As a variant of the above trade structure, rather than taking in cash, we could use the volatility differential to protect against a large down move in the DAX while still benefiting from a large up or down move in the FTSE. In particular, we could go long FTSE straddles, and go short DAX straddles, and use the cash difference to buy an out-of-the-money DAX put, limiting the downside to perhaps 90-100% spot. If the DAX crashed, our short liability would be capped in a down move. In such an event, the FTSE would likely move sharply as well, so we would probably gain from the long FTSE straddle position. Note that this trade may further benefit from any skew in the DAX that is typically considerably flatter than on the FTSE, thereby reducing the price of the OTM DAX put. For example, the vol increase in buying a 90-strike option relative to at-the-money is about 4.8 vols for the FTSE, but only 3.7 vols for the DAX using the average implied volatility level across our time period. 24 Measured as a fraction of ATM vol, these skew comparisons would appear even more pronounced. 4. Zero-Cost Strategy: Buy FTSE Straddles, Sell DAX Strangles. Another potential zero-cost strategy would be to buy straddles on the FTSE and sell strangles (out-of-the-money puts plus out-of-the-money calls) on the DAX. In general, strangles cost less than straddles, but since vols are higher for the DAX, the strategy would still be zero cost. In particular, one could sell an outof- the-money put with a 90-100% of spot strike, and an out-of-the-money call at say a 105% strike. In this strategy, if the DAX remains in the 90-100% range, then the short option position expires worthless. The tradeâs profits would be simply any gains from movement in the FTSE, where we are long straddles. If the DAX moves outside that range, then losses on the DAX position will tend to be offset by likely gains on the FTSE long straddle position, assuming they tend to move together. 5. Variance Swaps. The purest volatility play would be a variance swap, wherein we receive/pay the difference between a fixed reference level of volatility (the âstrikeâ level) and the actual realized level of volatility. The advantage of this instrument is that the payoff to a correct volatility view is independent of future spot. The entire paper can be found here: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=881550&CFID=39103856&CFTOKEN=56807636 EDIT: Does anyone else think starting a correlation thread would be helpful? I'm vaguely aware of an older thread but as I recall it became a mud-slinging contest in a hurry.
absolutely , but unfortunately not too many non directional options traders here. Check out my exotic correll trade DAX-SPX paper trade on riskarb's( probably similar to what you described here) ; I had zero responds on 100% + trade , LOL Now , if I would of post "I got 2k and looking for the best prop shop " , I probably get 50 pages and 100k views
very nice work thanks for the example...generalizing here... most traders are naturally directional (its easier). It takes far more work to derive and work out non directional trades and very difficult to master. note. I didn't say most PROFITABLE traders...
I believe IV has a fantastic dispersion strategy going. I doubt he'll have any (-) months[-disp] if stat vol is <3 sigma.
IV, you should start a thread on it if not too much trouble. I know i will participate. I have been trying to incorporate more non-directional trades into my trading for a while now. This is certainly a great subject that i'd like to learn more on.
Just wondering what incentive you are giving IV to start this thread? All he has to look forward to is a bunch of people coming on his thread and rubbishing his techniques coupled with a never ending stream of lurkers asking questions that were covered 7 posts ago and then let's not forget the incessant information beggars.....sheesh....am I getting jaded here on ET or what? LOL. I think I was moved by Ozzy's recent post LMAO. BTW, I will be one of those information beggars Seriously though, to get you started there's plenty of information in the archives and on the net but it sounds like you've had a look. For correlation, "Pairs Trading","Intermarket" and "Market Neutral" are other possible search terms you may wish to employ. Most won't be in the context of options. There are a few books on pairs. I won't comment on their merits as it is subjective: Trading Pairs, Whistler Pairs Trading, Vidyamurthy May need to brush up on your math if you want to read Vidyamurthy LOL. Whistler also has an accompanying website and software with an imaginative domain name. Exercise for the reader to figure it out There's a new book: The Handbook of Pairs Trading which has some option specific coverage pertaining to the strategy. I haven't read it yet but it is available as an electronic download so might grab it. ToS has had a couple of mock pairs trades and seminars with options. They should be in the archives on the site etc. IIRC Riskarb did a few pairs in his old exotics journal...or I could be imagining it. Once you've mined the information there's only one thing left to do: figure out the rest by yourself. Is the spread (volatility or direction) going to converge/diverge? Take appropriate positions. Good luck VP! MoMoney.
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