New Vietnam in South America

Discussion in 'Politics' started by SouthAmerica, Sep 3, 2012.

  1. September 4, 2012

    SouthAmerica: Quoting from this FT article: "Unlike China and India, Brazil’s growth story has been more about income redistribution than rapid expansion of gross domestic product. This has led to a ballooning of the lower middle class by nearly 60 per cent between 2003 and 2011, according to Professor Marcelo Côrtes Neri of the Getulio Vargas Foundation, an academic institution. Their numbers are set to grow another 12 per cent by 2014."


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    Financial Times (UK) - April 26, 2012
    “Brazil wealthy set to double in 11 years”
    By Joe Leahy and Samantha Pearson in São Paulo

    At the Fazenda do Haras Larissa, the mood among the well-heeled crowd is tense with anticipation.

    The vast luxury rural development in the hills near São Paulo, which has a rural English theme that includes imported 18th century carriages complete with liveried drivers, is due to host a polo match led by Britain’s Prince Harry.

    When the prince finally lands on the helicopter pad, which has space for 30 choppers, he presents the only genuinely English moment of the day when he is self-deprecating about his chances
    of winning the polo match.

    “I’m a bit rusty,” he tells the gathered elite.

    While the event was for charity, business is never far away in the new Brazil. In a country that produced 22 millionaires a day in 2010, Haras Larissa, whose most expensive plot sells for R$16m ($8.5m), is just another attempt to profit from the astonishing wealth created by a decade of economic growth in Brazil.

    “The luxury property market is booming because Brazil is booming,” says the developer, Alvaro Coelho da Fonseca, one of Brazil’s richest real estate barons.

    International attention over the past decade has focused on the rise of Brazil's lower middle class, who earn between R$1734 and R$7,475 per household a month and have turned the country into one of the world’s most promising consumer goods markets. But while this group accounts for more than half the population, it is the so-called B and A classes – those earning more than R$7,475 – that are poised to grow fastest in the coming years, analysts say.

    Unlike China and India, Brazil’s growth story has been more about income redistribution than rapid expansion of gross domestic product. This has led to a ballooning of the lower middle class by nearly 60 per cent between 2003 and 2011, according to Professor Marcelo Côrtes Neri of the Getulio Vargas Foundation, an academic institution. Their numbers are set to grow another 12 per cent by 2014.

    But more impressive will be the growth of the A and B classes. The ranks of those people with incomes more comparable to those of the middle and upper classes of advanced economies are expected to more than double by 2014, compared with 2003, to more than 29m, a population nearing the size of Canada.

    The rise of the well-educated and financially empowered groups is changing Brazil’s political and social fabric, analysts say, in the form of greater demands for efficient government.

    “There is a political tsunami coming in Brazil,” says Chris Garman, analyst with Eurasia Group, the consultants.

    Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, enjoyed a record approval rating of 77 per cent in mid-March despite economic growth slowing last year. She was helped by low unemployment and salary increases.

    But her government knows that a more prosperous population means a more exacting electorate. Analysts say it is partly for this reason that she has shown less tolerance of corrupt ministers than in the past, dismissing a swath of them last year.

    “She is going to increasingly be held accountable on the quality of public services and no longer just on growth and income,” says Mr Garman.

    Multinationals and domestic businesses, meanwhile, have also taken notice. BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen and other car manufacturers are targeting Brazil with higher end models. Chivas Brothers, the owner of the Chivas Regal whisky brand, says Brazil’s booming north-eastern city of Recife has the highest per capita whisky consumption in the world.

    “When we look at the world … Brazil is one of the top three opportunities,” says Christian Porta, chief executive of the company and one of the sponsors of Prince Harry’s polo match last month.

    Financial services such as private banking are booming. There was R$434.4bn under management in the country’s private banking sector in December, according to industry data, an increase of 21.6 per cent from the previous year.

    “We’re now seeing a second generation of wealthy families with this new economic phase of the country,” says Silas Caldana, the director of Oslo Patrimômio, which manages family fortunes in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul. His company, which caters to clients with more than R$50m, expects to double its number of clients in the next two years.

    Local entrepreneurs, such as Mr Coelho da Fonseca, are also determined not to miss the boat. His development also has 700 sheep to give its tenants the feeling of being in Oxfordshire rather than subtropical São Paulo. It also has a test drive circuit for Range Rover.

    “The whole thing was inspired by the English countryside – you know, roads that don’t have tarmac,” he explains, adding that he also keeps a residence on the development. “My house is also a type of English cabin. But it’s very small – only 400 square metres [4,305 sq ft].”

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    #11     Sep 4, 2012
  2. September 4, 2012

    SouthAmerica: Reply to John Wensink

    The Brazilian economy is doing better than you think when you consider that the Euroland economy is spinning completely out of control - the entire Middle East is a complete mess, the Chinese economy is slowing down very fast and....the US economy is nothing more than an empty carcass of what the US economy used to be in the past.

    It is worth to re-post this video with the interview of Max Keiser with Dan Collins an expert regarding the US/China economies and his realistic analysis of what the US economy has become.

    September 1, 2012

    SouthAmerica: The US economy is imploding and becoming immaterial in the new order of the 21st century.

    Max Kesier: American GDP, fact or fiction? - September 1, 2012

    <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/jFtE3frnSL0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


    In this edition of the show Max interviews Dan Collins from thechinamoneyreport.com. He talks about whether the United States economy is really larger than the world's second, third, and forth-largest economies combined?

    Dan is the Founder/Editor of TheChinaMoneyReport.com. He is an MBA graduate of Rutgers University. He got his BA degree in economics from Michigan State University and was an exchange student at Tsinghua University in Beijing in the 1990's. Dan is also a contributing author to publications such as Financial Sense and The China Business Herald. He is a frequent guest on financial television programs such as The Keiser Report as well as radio shows like the Schiff Report.

    Dan Collins wrote on his web Blog the “China Money Report” his latest article: American GDP: “The Fantastic Fiction of American Strength” - He said the following based on his research: “All the statistics provided by the US government is a bunch of non-sense.

    The GDP number for the US economy of US$ 14.5 trillion for year 2011, is equal to the GDP of the next 3 largest economy combined – China (US$ 6 trillion), Japan (US$ 5 trillion) and Germany (US$ 3.3 trillion) – then he compares: what is behind these GDP numbers?

    When you travel around these countries and see what they are really producing – the United States with its US$ 14.5 trillion GDP is producing only 8.7 million cars, compared with the block of 3 countries which produced 33 million cars in 2011 – they produce 4 times the number than the US.

    In steel production the United States produced 85 million tones of steel in 2011, the block of 3 countries produced 10 times that amount, they produced 835 million tones of steel. They also have 5 times the number of mobile users than the US.

    The United States is a net import country (import more than export) – the block of 3 countries has a net export of US$ 4 trillion dollars....If you look at the US economy it looks like a 19th century economy other than the main exports to China like scrap metals, junk paper, and scrap plastic, they are also heavy in agricultural products such as soybeans and corn, commodities that are heavily subsidized by the US government.

    What is really propping up the US GDP number is US government spending (based on borrowed money from foreign countries or the money created from nothing by the Federal Reserve) and US private consumption.

    This US economy based on money printing system is creating no jobs – the US has 30 million more people than 10 years ago (period 2002 - 2012) and today we have less people working in the old USA.

    The nominal US GDP went from US$ 10 trillion in January 2000 to the current US$ 14.2 trillion by Dec. 2010 – and the real GDP went from US$ 11 trillion in January 2000 to the current US$ 13.2 trillion by Dec. 2010 – see data at:

    http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=230

    The US GDP number means nothing regarding measuring the health of the US economy – the US GDP is showing growth because they have been understating the CPI inflation and the US GDP number is miscalculated, because of the games they play with calculation the real inflation in the US economy.

    And the consumption piece of the US GDP has gone up from 70 percent to 72 percent and most of this consumption is primarily driven by people going into debt....and a big piece of that debt comes from credit provided from China.


    In a Nutshell:

    Today the US economic and financial system is nothing more than an empty shell based on hype, money printing from thin air...and going thru the final days of the US dollar having that special status of being the main reserve currency in the International monetary system that is no longer useful for the world of the 21st century.

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    #12     Sep 4, 2012
  3. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    I am probably the only person on this thread that has actually met Bill Clinton. He will pitch the point of view of whoever is paying him. If he is being paid $1,000,000 by Cisco for an appearance then Bill will pitch networking & tech like he is a believer. If Bill is being paid by bankers to be at a International Banking Conference he will pitch the banks & countries of the hosts like he is a true believer.

    Is Bill Clinton a smart guy? Yeah. Is he an excellent public speaker? Yeah. Does he really believe what he is pitching for his large appearance fee? No.
     
    #13     Sep 4, 2012
  4. September 5, 2012

    SouthAmerica: You can read about Bill Clinton on this thread:

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...48&highlight=Bill+Clinton+ethanol#post1862448
     
    #14     Sep 5, 2012