Exit is trend change. They longer the trend the more room I tend to give it. I'll move from daily to weekly charts.
what is your initial risk? and at what point has the trend run out of room? i think your actually investing not trading because there is just as big a risk as reward, it's not all reward all the time unless your just investing. when you get out to weekly data that investing.
Yes, 100% agree. This is what I meant when I wrote this: In hindsight, I should have wrote "future market movements" to be more clear. Thanks for pointing that out.
Yeah, letting winners run sounds great – that's how you catch the big trends over time. I just find it tough to figure out which ones will actually keep performing.
Actually, it shouldn't be a new idea for you at all. We're talking past each other as I am using different words and phrases to describe the thing you are looking for. Your words "experience" and "understanding the market" (= what I call analytical skills) will not only allow you to "figure out which ones will actually keep performing" but also which "ones will perform" in advance before the trend starts. This is what I meant when I wrote: In other words, objectively forecast and assign probabilities to future market movements = "figure out which assets will have the largest upside potential in advance and will continue to perform in the future" I'll explain with this example. My analysis (=what you call "experience" & "market understanding") points to precious metals and commodities as the asset class with greatest upside potential over the next several years. I've been positioned in commodities and precious metals since 2020 when they were dirt cheap. Silver and platinum at the time were, in my opinion, the most undervalued hard assets on the planet. I attached a silver futures chart, where I highlighted what I thought were the best places to add to my position (labeled as trading opportunities). This is essentially how I have "let my winners run" since 2020, and how I've added to them along the way. My current analysis (what you call "market understanding") says that silver will eventually break out above the ascending parallel channel top into a parabolic move (aqua colored path & arrow) up to the $70 level by year end, where I plan to unload ½ of my A+ positions and reload them on the pull back. I'm also anticipating silver to run much higher over the coming years. One thing to note is that I run my analysis & process on a daily basis and the picture above will probably change along the way as the secular trend continues to unfold over the coming months & years. My job is to continuously analyze and adapt. Hope this filled in a few of the missing puzzle pieces and gave you some ideas. Warning: Please don't take my post as financial advice, I don't recommend anyone to jump into silver now as I expect it become a lot more volatile, where entries from here on up risk getting whipsawed.
Ah, then I misunderstood you a bit at first. My initial impression of your post was that your analysis was more of an intuitive process based on years of experience. That’s why it felt new to me, since most people usually talk in terms of strategies or fixed methods. Your chart really helped to clarify what you meant – thanks!
I talk about it quite often as to how I get losses back but it seems most traders "wave" it off as untenable.
This is ET. The place where Extraordinary Traders hang out. Where the best traders in the world congregate. S&P daily, intraday. Use options, and nail that macro movement for all its got. Don't randomly scalp, but capture the bulk of that move. If a trader is able to do that day in, day out, on an average...the account will grow.
You demonstrated it in your SIM videos, why not try it in real time without editing the video. ROFLOL!
Good concepts IMO. But if I were new I'd set aside 5000 to 10,000 and stick to the micros trading small positions to allow me to scale in. And to allow me to reverse double and triple up when wrong and still be trading small size like max 1 to 6 micros on any one position. So if I were new and was losing with 1 or 2 micros on a small scale in then I would practice reversing (if wrong on direction) with doing so 2, 3, or 4 times the initial size getting back a loss quickly. I would learn to scalp And capitalize on small quick gains over and over utilizing FOT. There are many strategies to learn to scalp however a new trader could focus on just BOs and momentum and practice with small size. If I were scalping BOs and didn't see many I would simply dial down to a smaller TF to where scalping BOs is a tenable tactic because they abound. It takes a lot of practice to scalp and to learn where to place SLs and Profit targets and to learn how to navigate scaling under an upside down R:R. It is extremely difficult to scalp with initial Reward being 2 or 3 times initial risk. It sounds good on paper but in real trading it is hard to pull off. IMO Most scalpers that are successful at it understand that too tight of a SL is going to lower win rate and that is untenable because losses will overwhelm gains. IMO a new scalper has to learn to maintain a high win rate on average (I try for 70% to 90%), learn how to scalp with upside down initial R:R. Learn how to grab what the market gives him when it gives. Don't worry about or fret about what happens after he grabs a profit. Learn to make quick decisions. Learn to utilize FOT. Learn PA. Learn to trade small in the beginning and compound the account. Size can increase once experience is gained and skills are developed and the account has grown to a larger size to enable bigger position sizing. A scalper will take losses so it is needful to have a technique to get that loss back quickly. Start small and work his way up to get to the point he is making g pretty good $$$. It takes time to learn and practice so IMO no use throwing money away in the beginning. Actually I suggest a new scalper practice a good while on sim. Then move over to 5000 to 10000 dollar account. If he can't make it work on a sim he won't be able to make it work on a real money account. And if he learns to make it work on a SIM that still is no guarantee he will make it work on a real account because he will have learn to deal with his emotions and quick decision making while under a bit of stress. That is why a sim is a good environment to develop skills until they become second nature. Real money will test his skills under pressure and aroused emotions. But at least on a Sim the practical implemention of his techniques gives him a base to know how he should respond to market conditions while under fire.