LOL!!! Ill admit you are months to years ahead of me in regard to timing bottoms.. But thats not the secret sauce
Update! I put in a market order last last Wednesday and got filled at the top of the candle lol. I was down about $1700 ($1100 including premium). Now I am at almost break even, and collected $600 in premium for the NOV30 $9 strike. If I get filled then I profit $1600...if not I repeat.
Update! TL;DR? "almost break even" = arb. wxy says BW instead of starting with the put. Apply EW and buy peasant model Lambo and additional van down by the river.
I can sell a put at the price level I think it's going to. So if it's at 14 I could sell a put at 17 but then I'm possibly getting assigned at the top of the leg. I'd put rather buy at the money and sell at the top. Get in and get out. Take my pnl & premium!