new strategy born out of frustration...

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by frostengine, Jul 25, 2006.

  1. Basically I'm frustrated like a lot of traders, so here is my new trading strategy. It isnt logical, it isnt fancy.... its really just a wild experiment..... looking for comments about could this work, or how it could be improved...

    Basic premise:

    #1 I do not know if the market is going to go up or down
    #2 My risk management is HORRIBLE
    #3 Go with the trend.....


    -Starting at 9:00 AM Central time

    Case1: YM Above 20 SMA
    -Flip a coin, if heads enter long at market
    -Set hard stop of 10 YM points
    -Set hard profit target of 18 YM points

    Case 2: YM below 20 SMA
    -Flip a coin, if heads enter short at market
    -set hard stop of 10 YM points
    -set profit target of 18 YM points

    if in either case the coin does not land on heads, wait 30 minutes and repeat.

    Any thoughts on how badly this system would do? The Ym typically makes moves bigger than 10 pts... so assuming that you have 50/50 shot of the trade going in yoru direction, if its wrong you lose 10 pts if right you make 18.... this assumes that Ym generally moves at least 18 pts when it makes a sizeable move. If "go with the trend" is infact correct... then by doing the filter of over/under a moving average should give you a better than 50/50 chance of being right....

    I know, I know this method is nuts.... i'm frustrated enough to try it!
  2. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    sound chancy, I propose

    take 1 minute chart, add 34 MA, if price cut MA wait 5 bars = 5m, if the 6th bar still above MA, buy, trailing stop is the MA itself, reverse for sell. At the least this system will last a little bit longer than yours, I know it is just prolong the agony but it could give you some more time to ponder.
  3. nitro



  4. Step away for a few days. Also maybe look for more trending markets that you can try and ride for a bigger gain (NQ etc). Frustration is a part of trading. If you stick to only trading in the morning this may help you out as well. There is very little margin for error in the afternoon session.
  6. Cheese


    Here's a better one.
    No losses guaranteed.
    Don't trade.
  7. cashonly

    cashonly Bright Trading, LLC

    Here's a better one:
    Get buddy-buddy with the worst trader you can find. Make sure you get him to call out his trades. Every time he does, you take the other side.:D
  8. Mr B

    Mr B

    hmm, you're entry doesn't really matter, it's your exit.

    but in this case even your exit sucks. try it with a 30 pt profit 10 pt loss.
  9. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    let save frosty from another melt down, send your simple method, here is another one,
    1m time frame, buy when tiki hit 25, stop is low of previous bar, 2 tick target.