Quite possibly, but doesn't mean that it's not exploitable and a potentially the source of an excellent trading strategy. What is interesting at the moment is that the indices are already down significantly, but the momos haven't failed (yet). Maybe the flood gates will open and maybe not. I'm not saying that it's different this time, and there will not be a significant fall in resource stocks (for example), but the business of many of these companies is attached to products with intrinsic value, which would be hard to say about some of the casualties of the dot com bust. Furthermore the markets are global, whereas the dot com markets were basically western countries. When companies such as Rio and BHP- Billiton are doubling the price of iron ore in new contracts (some even retrospective !) , this is real money and not some vague anticipation of future earnings in some mythical markets that might come to pass. Quite confusing, but probably not a rerun of the dot com bust, though if there is a major financial crisis with multiple bank failures all bets are off.
Right now the energy, iron, and potash stocks are running and the tech like AAPL BIDU and RIMM are stalling. This doesn't surprise me because sectors rally in shifts. On some days the tech stocks surge and on other days the commodity stocks surge, and on other days everything goes up. With the market at 18 months lows the index is holding up very well. I don't see how it could have turned out any better. If anyone wants to short POT, MOS or KOL it's their loss.
I've only been charting it for a week or so...I'll be posting a daily chart along with the intraday soon.