Hi, I've been reading these forums for months; read the best systems thread, the simple systems thread and everything else pertinent to ES trading. I would love it if some of you with more experience would tell me if my system is going to work in the long term or am I likely to lose it all. The system is very simple, in the ES, on a 9 minute time frame: RSI set at 6 Bollinger Bands at 10 and 1 Buy when RSI dips below 30 and reemerges above 35 AND price is under BB bottom line. Sell when price either touches top line of BB or breaks through it and reverses back down to touch it again. 2 pt stop. Only trade during decent volume and range (after 8:30ish) Is this clear? I had originally thought based on paper trading this was a decent strategy, but now its not working out for me as well as I'd hoped, is the system fundamentally flawed? Also, does anyone have the resources to backtest it for me? I'd really appreciate it if its not a huge hassle. Thanks!
i assume you have a computer , since you are writing to this thread, and trading (paper trading). so am i missing something? get some backtesting software (the best ones out there are pretty cheap in comparison to the amount of risk capital you'll probably be trading). it might take a few days to learn the basics and code up your system. if you want my opinion on whether or not you are going to lose money in the long run -- well, at this rate you aren't gonna last long! :eek: www.tradestation.com www.wealth-lab.com www.esignal.com pick one and have a blast good luck!!!
More or less just want to know if the system is fundamentally flawed, because I am new to this, but I'll definately get some backtesting software, thanks for the links.
Also, I'm already with FutureSource so its not dead simple to switch over immediately, and they don't offer backtesting
Thanks, thats all I wanted to hear, a definative answer, but of course I'll research myself...what is THE best/ cheapest backtesting software?
This system has about 35% winners at best. If you want to trade reversals you have to have a way of telling that trend ended or is about to end. RSI does not do that . Try to add divergence and trendlines to your tool box. You can use MACD, STOCH or CCI as a divergence indicators. Use 5 min to spot trend change and 1 min to pinpoint an entry.
Forget about trading divergences from out of the box indicators. That stuff will get you in the poorhouse in no time.
But still if you want to have a go at it, the best divergence signals i have seen came from the Kase-indicators. However, the ergodic, which is free, does an equal good job at it.
Before you give some suggestion... Do some tests or make some sense... 1. Tested your suggestion with MACD, Stoch and CCI. Doesn't work. 2. Put it through parameter optimization. No significance. 3. Regardless of cyclical factors or changing markets... You'll lose money in the long run how ever you mess around with the parameter. No significance even if you make the parameter optimized on X amount of drawdown, specific interval or cyclical adaptation. Because this is Index Futures... tested it on ES and NQ...