thanks for clearing that up apex! I missed your post about the remaining balance earning interest, now I understand. If nothing else changes, I'll lose about 4% by putting on the EUR/USD trade compared to just staying in dollar. But with the upcoming ECB interest hike and the end of fed's hike, along with other fundamentals pressuring the dollar, I still think long euro is very attractive. I'm interested in your opinion in the outlook of the dollar if you care to provide some? thanks!
Many thanks for your insightful explanations, late apex, esp. that relating to arbs' modus operandi. The CME "How to Use" page is also helpful, particularly the "user entered forward points" part. I shouldn't have overlooked this page... The FEnews article is very clear indeed. Thanks for recommending it. I'll certainly reread the content during Easter.
Afraid you're asking the wrong guy. I don't attempt to make long-range forecasts, beyond a few days or maybe weeks, since it doesn't help my trading results, and can be harmful. If 2006 turns out to be as bearish for the USD as the prevailing consensus seems to suggest, so be it. If not, well, it wouldn't have any impact on my daily trading plan and actions.
I use TradeSports.Com once in a while. I believe they have a Yen Contract. I think the commissions are good, but volume/spread is poor on some contracts.