New invention for the derivatives market - How to profit of it?

Discussion in 'Options' started by thecoder, Aug 17, 2020.

  1. @thecoder Your puts are nothing new. They trade already in crude oil and interest rate options on futures. You're copywriting something that already exists and is used in practice by thousands of traders.

    What you clearly don't understand is those products are inherently different than stocks and equity indexes. Crude oil and interest rate products have theoretically unlimited upside and downside risk, which allows the puts to have equal payout as the calls. Stocks have limited downside risk, and therefore the puts can't payout the same as the calls. You have no clue on how to apply the appropriate calculations of probability, variance, volatlity, z-scores, and standard deviation. They are product specific.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2020
    #141     Aug 22, 2020
  2. thecoder

    thecoder

    @VolSkewTrader, blah blah blah. Same sh*t you already had posted here.
    Your objection has been registered. Thx and bye!
     
    #142     Aug 22, 2020
  3. thecoder

    thecoder

    It could be that in the posted program outputs the information on the zones (LZ, POZ, PZ)
    for the Short FairPUT maybe need to be updated/fixed. Working on it...
     
    #143     Aug 22, 2020
  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    #144     Aug 22, 2020
  5. "Long FairPUT:
    LZ(const): Sx >= K(100.000000;z=0.000000) POZ(var): Sx < K(100.000000;z=0.000000) PZ(var): Sx < K-P(88.076462;z=-0.423216)
    LZ_MaxLoss=P(11.923538) PZ_MaxProfit=Sup-K-P(ie. unlimited)
    Credit=-11.923538 Payout=0.000000 Profit=-11.923538(-100.00%) (z=0.743812 zUp=0.743812 Sup=125.000000(25.00%)) Smid=100.000000(0.00) Sdown=80.000000(-20.00%)

    Short FairPUT (same as Short PUT):
    LZ(var): Sx <= K-P(88.076462;z=-0.423216) POZ(var): Sx > K-P(88.076462;z=-0.423216) PZ(const): Sx >= K(100.000000;z=0.000000)
    LZ_MaxLoss=K-P(88.076462;-738.677212%) PZ_MaxProfit=P(11.923538)
    Credit=11.923538 Payout=0.000000 Profit=11.923538(100.00%)"

    Hey pinhead|SFB. According to your new invention code, hows come my long "FairPUT" has unlimited MaxProfit, but my short "FairPUT" MaxLoss is capped out (limited losses)?

    So that means my long $1 strike "FairPUT" can make $1 million (just like/mirror image of the $1 strike "regular" BSM Call)...while the seller of the $1 strike "FairPUT" can only lose $1 max, just like a "regular" BSM Put. Who covers the $999,999.00 difference in that transaction...the Fed? And where do I sign up to simultaneously buy and sell these things?
     
    #145     Aug 22, 2020
  6. themickey

    themickey

    At images.png
     
    #146     Aug 23, 2020
  7. thecoder

    thecoder

    I already had addressed this problem in my last posting before your above posting. It reads:
    As said, working on it...
    It's now of course already clear that Short FairPut cannot be the same like a normal Put,
    so the labelling "same as Short PUT" is obviously incorrect.
    Still working on this problem; it's unfortunately a complicated/hard-to-solve one, as it seems... :-(
    But I think it's just an "info" problem.
    So, let's be patient and wait what my further research brings on this...
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2020
    #147     Aug 23, 2020
  8. thecoder

    thecoder

    A quick update:

    It must of course be as follows:

    Short FairPUT:
    LZ_MaxLoss=unlimited PZ_MaxProfit=P(11.923538)

    Calculating the exact boundaries and amounts for LZ, POZ and PZ is a little bit complicated, but as said I'm working on it and I am confident I will find the right equations soon.
    So, IMO there is no problem at all; it was just an "info"/"interpretation" problem, as was suspected in my prev posting.
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2020
    #148     Aug 23, 2020
  9. So my Tesla $10 strike regular BSM Puts only have $10 MaxLoss, but your TSLA $10 strike "FairPuts" have unlimited MaxLoss. Like someone could lose a million dollars on a short 1 lot $10 strike "FairPut". The margin requirement difference between the 2 would be astronomical.

    Conversely, your TSLA $10 strike "FairPuts" are mirror images of and have the same unlimited MaxProfit as the regular BSM TSLA $10 strike Calls.

    The $10 strike TSLA BSM Calls are $2,040 ITM. As a mirror image with equal payout, your "invention" would allow for the $10 strike TSLA "FairPuts" to also be $2,040 ITM.

    Makes perfect senses.....if you're a lunatic.
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2020
    #149     Aug 23, 2020
  10. thecoder

    thecoder

    That's a correct analysis, right, yes, you finally got it! :)

    Seriously: yes, that's it, and I don't see any problems with it. Things are as they are, as long as they are correct, especially mathematically correct.
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2020
    #150     Aug 23, 2020