this was an interesting read. A Look At The Collapse Of The 1980's Real Estate Bubble Through The Eyes Of The New York Times http://www.youdovoodoo.com/80sbubble.htm
One of the best things I've read anywhere in a long time. Saved as a word file and put into my research folder. Thanks.
. Donald Trump was a big time guy in the beginning of the 80's..keep reading down the page and in the early 1990's he is a deadbeat...
My point was the jabs I've been taking because I'm vocal in my opinion that we are at or near the bottom of the housing market. I'm not hedging by saying "near"...re-read my posts and I've said it all along. In this thread, I noted that the new home sales the article referenced were recorded when customers signed up to have a house built for them. With the slow down, many of the builders, including builders locally to me, cut their construction work force and they are instructing their sales force to push existing inventory...a rational move. They aren't trying to build new houses while they have too much inventory...that would be stupid...so I don't think their cutting back is a sign that "there is no bottom in sight". If we imagine a publically company selling widgets. Sales for widgets were off for a while so their inventories built up. As a response to this, the widget company slowed the manufacturing of widgets and focused on selling excess widgets to whittle down inventory. If I read that a company did that, while at the same time, sales and price increases in the general widget market were being observed, I'd think that this would be bullish for the company and the widget market in general. Especially if everyone had to own a widget. SM
Great article, now pay attention to how many years it took for that mess to unwind. Now notice how the current bubble is twice as extreme as the previous one. The 2006 spike isnt even shown in that graph! These clowns think we have bottomed in less than a year off the peak? Put down the blow boys. Housing aint going anywhere for many years.
Neat article. Check out this link: http://www.njba.org/housingData/medianprices.asp I'm thinking the median housing cost is now lower than $411K for all of New Jersey (Q3, 2006?). One has to decide on their own where the trendline should be at this very minute. I think the huge drop in rates in the 1980's had a lot to do with the mania and collapse, but since your data is "real" it may be factored out. Thanks for the article.
No. I do investment real estate. All in fixed notes and I've made a killing doing that. I continue to do well with it. I fear that the stock market long term will be too stagnant because the baby boomers will sell, will stop buying, and will stop consuming as much. Have recently considered doing day trading though in general, and I love the economics information here...folks know their stuff... SM
SM Maybe you think you've reached a bottom in YOUR area... Not a chance in hell we are close to a bottom here... so again the regional/local issue rears it's ugly head. California has a LONG way to go before hitting bottom. Especially with the new fannie/freddie underwriting standards. They still have 6 months to get the last of the ignorant in with liar loans. After that, it's lights out, IMHO.