New Coronavirus Variant (Omicron; B.1.1529) a ‘Serious Concern’ in South Africa

Discussion in 'Politics' started by ipatent, Nov 25, 2021.

  1. UsualName

    UsualName

    Same here. My brother in law got a second infection in the middle of the week. Mild symptoms for a day then clear.
     
    #381     Jan 2, 2022
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  2. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #382     Jan 2, 2022
  3. Wallet

    Wallet

    #383     Jan 2, 2022
  4. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Note there are also models which predict a quick end for Omicron as well. But most of the models and information are based on the experience in South Africa -- where they don't even quite understand how long Omicron was circulated before it was "discovered".

    Dr. Scott Gottlieb Predicts Quick End for Omicron: ‘We’ll Be in the Throes of This’ for ‘Maybe a Month’
    https://www.mediaite.com/news/dr-sc...l-be-in-the-throes-of-this-for-maybe-a-month/

    Dr. Scott Gottlieb believes that the omicron-driven Covid surge will be short-lived.

    Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box Monday, the former FDA commissioner stated his belief that Omicron will quickly come and go.

    “This is not going to last very long,” Gottlieb said. “We’ll be in the throes of this for maybe a month.”

    Gottlieb cited already-cresting case numbers overseas as the basis for his prediction.

    “Here in the northeast, I think you’re going to see infections peak out within the next two weeks,” Gottlieb said.”So hopefully, here in New York City does find a peak within the next two weeks. London which is about two to three weeks behind New York City has already peaked, and is probably on the way down.”

    And post-Omicron, Gottlieb expressed optimism that no other Covid variant will impact American society in the near term.

    “This is a fast-moving wave of infection,” he said. “On the back end of this, hopefully, we’re done with Covid for a while. We’ll have enough immunity in the population between vaccination and infections. So we really need to get through this month.”

    (Article includes CNBC video)
     
    #384     Jan 3, 2022
  5. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    So we have rolled over into the New Year, 2022. Let's see where things are at with Omicron.

    Multiple recent studies indicate that vaccines are less effective with Omicron. The MRNA vaccines (with two doses) wane over time quicker against Omicron in stopping infections, however a booster greatly helps the situation. Likewise other non-mRNA vaccines have a significant drop in efficacy against Omicron -- to the point where some may not be useful. The vaccinated breakthrough rate should climb significantly with Omicron but we need to wait for large-scale December data on this to understand the percentage (both for boosted and un-boosted).

    These same studies also show that having a recent non-Omicron case of Covid nearly provides no protection against Omicron. Underlining that vaccines -- even with reduced efficacy are the best alternative for prevention.

    On the monoclonal antibody treatment front only one of the three available treatments; Sotrovimab is effective against Omicron. Eli Lilly and Regeneron are not effective against Omicron. Unfortunately Sotrovimab is in short supply. In the U.S. the federal government is hoping to increase the Sotrovimab supply by mid-January.

    In terms of severity; data from the U.K. and South Africa is showing that Omicron is 70% less severe than Delta. Note that this figure is for the fully vaccinated. For the unvaccinated it appears that Omicron is less severe -- but not 70% less severe. "Less severe" is typically measured by hospitalization rates. From a medical front it appears that Omicron is less apt to attack the lungs and remains in the upper respiratory system leading to the a drop in severe cases.

    The death rate from Omicron appears to be lower -- aligned with the drop in severity. However good figures are not available on Omicron death rate yet -- since deaths lag hospitalizations.

    Omicron is much more infectious than previous variants according to multiple studies. We are seeing this reflected in the spike in cases across the U.S. and world. If the world-wide pattern follows South Africa then we expect the Omicron surge to peak rapidly then decline quickly. Models for the U.S. believe the Omicron peak in places with current high case rates will peak in the last two weeks of January -- time will tell if this model prediction is correct. And, of course, currently less impacted areas in the U.S. will experience the Omicron surge later.

    Of course, the recent holiday season has probably served to accelerate the spread of Omicron to new communities and households. This is coupled with the return to school which will further spread Omicron acquired over holidays among children and back into households & communities.
     
    #385     Jan 3, 2022
  6. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #386     Jan 4, 2022
  7. Wallet

    Wallet

    #387     Jan 4, 2022
  8. ph1l

    ph1l

    https://autos.yahoo.com/long-omicron-incubation-period-differs-162034145.html
    How long is Omicron’s incubation period? How it differs from Delta and other Covid variants
    So it sounds like the Omicron variant acts more like the common cold than the previous Covid-19 variants.
     
    #388     Jan 4, 2022
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  9. Wallet

    Wallet

    #389     Jan 4, 2022
  10. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #390     Jan 7, 2022