New Coronavirus Variant (Omicron; B.1.1529) a ‘Serious Concern’ in South Africa

Discussion in 'Politics' started by ipatent, Nov 25, 2021.

  1. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #361     Dec 24, 2021
  2. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    So let's see where things are at with Omicron post-Christmas....

    The information regarding Omicron is still evolving and we are in the early stages. So far Omicron appears to be more infectious than Delta and other variants. Some estimates show that Omicron is now the second most infectious virus on the face of the earth after measles.

    The information from two studies in the U.K. show that Omicron produces 40% to 70% fewer severe cases than Delta (based on the U.K. population which is approx. 82% vaccinated). However one of the studies noted an increase in severity for Omicron among the unvaccinated when compared to Delta.

    The information from South Africa indicates that over 90% of those who were hospitalized with Omicron are unvaccinated (unchanged from Delta) They also noted an increase in the number of children hospitalized with Omicron when compared to Delta. The information from South Africa noted that only 6% of those hospitalized with Omicron were in ICU compared to over 18% with Delta. About 25% of the population of South Africa is fully vaccinated.

    There are estimates in the U.K. that 80% of those hospitalized with Omicron will be unvaccinated compared to numbers close to 90% with Delta. This is reflective of increasing vaccination rates in the U.K. as well as the likelyhood that Omicron is more vaccine evasive. The concept of base rate fallacy must be kept in mind when attempting to do comparisons.

    There are lab experiments involving neutralizing antibodies and vaccines which shows that Omicron appears to be more vaccine evasive. The expectation is that there will be more breakthrough cases with Omicron (which appears to be occurring). With Delta the breakthrough case rate was below 0.5% generally. With Omicron this may increase significantly. Note that most vaccines (measles, mumps, etc.) have over a 3% breakthrough infection rate in a population with high prevalence of the disease.

    The ability of Omicron to breakthrough is not limited to vaccines -- there are studies showing that previous Covid infection in the unvaccinated provides nearly no protection against Omicron.

    So in summary - at this point Omicron appears to be more vaccine evasive, previous infection provides little protection, more infectious, and less severe. The next few weeks will provide better insights on the realities.
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2021
    #362     Dec 26, 2021
    ipatent likes this.
  3. ipatent

    ipatent

  4. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #364     Dec 28, 2021
  5. UsualName

    UsualName

    Speed of omicron takeover:

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    #365     Dec 28, 2021
  6. ipatent

    ipatent

    FDA: Antigen tests may have reduced sensitivity detecting Omicron

    Covid-19 antigen tests may be less capable of detecting the fast-spreading Omicron variant, the Food and Drug Administration cautioned on Tuesday.

    The new warning is based on preliminary studies by the National Institutes of Health’s Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics initiative using patient samples with live virus — analysis that “represents the best way to evaluate true test performance in the short-term,” according to FDA.
     
    #366     Dec 28, 2021
  7. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #367     Dec 29, 2021
    UsualName likes this.
  8. UsualName

    UsualName

    #368     Dec 29, 2021
  9. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #369     Dec 29, 2021
  10. ipatent

    ipatent

    Coronavirus risk calculations get harder as a study suggests rapid tests may be less effective at detecting omicron

    As the coronavirus spawns a record-breaking wave of infections, new research suggests that rapid tests widely used to identify potential covid-19 cases might be less effective at identifying illness caused by the swiftly spreading omicron variant.

    President Biden has promised to distribute 500 million rapid tests to the American public. People should still use these tests regularly, Tromberg said, because although they may be less sensitive than originally thought, they remain a highly effective tool for combating an extremely contagious virus.
    ______________________

    Just not as highly effective, apparently.
     
    #370     Dec 29, 2021