New Coffee question

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by nravo, Aug 19, 2009.

  1. nravo


    Saw a story floating around about a strategy, from some outfit called Hard Asset Investor, I think, to buy KC on August 20 and sell on Sept. 1, a play yielding 10% regularly over the last forget-how-many years.

    Anyone else aware of this, think its credible, playing it?
  2. I'd have to look at some stuff, but I thought this was the seasonal time of the year for coffee weakness? Harvest is in V I believe?
  3. nravo


    Maybe it's a roll or something?
  4. Seasonal weakness for coffee is greatest in the June/July timeframe, with choppy, up/down/sideways action from Aug-Oct, and a year end rally starting in Nov.

    The period starting aroung August 16, and going into Sept 1 timeframe is one of the most reliable two-week windows for a rally in KC futures.

    Two other statistically-significant two week timeframes for KC rallies (to round out the top 3 high-probability periods):

    Feb 1-15
    Aug 1-15

    I hope this helps -C.
  5. nravo


    Well, we already had a Aug 1 -15 rally (and took my profits, thank you). Does this lessen the possibility/probability of an August 17-Sept. 1 rally?
  6. Not sure, but I guess we'll find out, won't we?

  7. Sweet thanks Circ.
  8. nravo


    Might be worth a call or bull call spread to find out.