New Bull

Discussion in 'Trading' started by garbo, Jun 6, 2003.

  1. garbo


    Well, at 10:15 AM I decided I had had enough of this suffering as a bear. I covered all my shorts and bought 200 QQQ 32 calls.

    Frankly, this sucks... :mad:
  2. Bob111


    how do feel now? 12:40 PM
  3. garbo


    Like a whiz at market timing...
  4. It's amazing how our human nature creates the exact situation that we try to avoid.

    As long as we live and learn, we can go forward.

    That's how a loss will turn into a gain.

    Wish you the best!
  5. garbo


    Ugh...the 40-point drop in NQ has me worried. What happened to buying the dips?

    Bail now?

    God, I feel like a new contrarian indicator.
  6. garbo


    I should start selling my trades. At least you guys would know what not to do.

    Come to think of it, that's probably how a lot of market gurus get started (by losing their ass...).
  7. Step One: If someone says, "buy dips". Do not do what they say. Do not do what anyone says.

    Listen, Observe, Live, and Learn. And while you are doing that....take some shots with different trades.
  8. lindq


    You are more right than you know. The biggest lessons usually come with the largest losses. The trick is to be around long enough to learn from them.
  9. garbo


    I'm out. Moving on. Watch it go back up.

    Have a good weekend.
  10. sempai


    Bummer garbo. Looks like you bought the high of the day (it could rally this afternoon, but I doubt it). That happens to me a lot (buy at the high or sell at the low of the day). It usually happens when I "just can't stand it anymore", so when I feel like that, I try to ignore it and wait for a better opportunity. I think you're on the right side of the trade, but your timing was off - you may have to sweat it out for a while.

    Anyway, to the point of the thread. I've turned bullish over the past couple of weeks. I was hesitant before that because the indices were all approaching significant resistance levels and I wanted to wait to see how the market would react when they reached them. As of today (6/6) the S&P and Nasdaq have made pretty significant breaks above resistance over the last week or so, and the Dow has just broken out.

    I've been trying to establish long positions on pullbacks, although it's difficult. Previously, there were opportunities to buy on oversold conditions on the weekly charts, but recently there no longer seem to be any good retracements on the weekly; everything is staying overbought in the longer term, with occasional pullbacks on the daily chart. I'm trying to jump in on those daily pullbacks and use tight stops once the trade has gone my way and hopefully I'll be able to stay in. If not, I'll get stopped out at break even and try to re-enter at better prices.

    There are some good arguments for the bearish side, mainly what I just mentioned about long-term indicators in overbought territory and P.E. ratios being rather high right now. However when a market really starts to trend, that's what happens - the indicators on the long term charts (such as stochastics and rsi) will remain overbought/oversold for long periods of time. Similarly, P.E.'s can trade at or near the high/low end of their ranges for long periods of time in a strongly trending market.

    Anyway, just my 2 cents worth. This seems like one of those times when the general nature of the market is changing (from range to trend mode), and I'm just trying to adapt to what I'm seeing and go with it.
    #10     Jun 6, 2003