Discussion in 'Trading' started by trade555, Dec 1, 2002.
Maybe this is a castrated bull market. Ouch!!!
The guy who started this thread may well be smoking crack but I now feel that he might upgrade to showbiz sherbet by the time xmas comes.
I've just been checking my charts and I get the feeling that's there's still many bids below for a lot of these busted out stocks.
The pros I'd bet are having a tough time right now, maybe it's time for the man in the street to have a little cheer. Too easy to say it's a bear market rally and anyone who buys it is a mug.
I'm hyper bearish looking into 2003 but I have a sneaky feeling that I'll be able to buy my long dated puts at cheaper and cheaper levels.
AOL could be the key here, if it snaps back then pile in. Money is money, ok to be wrong on your thoughts but make $.
Whatever the case this is a very tricky market.
Hope you lose all your money
Just staying flexible and trying to trade what I see. And right now I don't see many short opportunites, only a load of traps being set.
Short term traps for the shorts and longer term ones for the longs.
BY the way, hope you make lots of money on the short side, I'll be watching.
I was talking about you
It was meant for the thread starter
OK Kav, hope you make some good money all the same.
New bull or Old bear giving birth to new bear!! Lol
same old bull about the bear ending.....been hearing that for 2 years.....yawn
Sorry Bud...Bull run in a Bear market yes I agree..who knows may tag SP965 or 1000, or could have ended on Monday with the panic buying frenzy... and exhaustion at 955.
Never confuse performance chasing with the fundamentals and/or valuations et al.
From my perch I do not see any catalyst to foment a true bull run, and that this bear will be with us for quite some time:
1. Mutual Fund Cash 4.5%; at real bottoms this is 10% +
2. Investor Intelligence Bull/Bear..this was flip-flopped for a total of 6 hours on Oct 9.; true bulls are born when Bears > Bulls for months (see 1970s; 1994)
3. Household liquidity is at an all-time low (vs. very hi 1982)
4. Personal bankruptices are at an all-time high
5. Mortgage foreclosures are running at a 8 year high
6. Interest rates are already very low; true bull mkts are born from high rate environments: 1982; 1987; 1994..that anticipate a lower rate environment for P/E expansion...this is not present today
7. According to Sell Side research 72% of analysts are bullish; This is the highest level of bullishness since 1986; this # was at it's lowest in 1994..guess what happened after that? Doh!
8. When stocks truly bottom..QLCG will NOT go from 19 to 45 in a month.. it will be 19 for months as investor apathy sets in
9. The world is a much more uncertain place vs. 10 years ago; PE expansion does not happen amid uncertainty
10. Baby boomers are entering their most risk averse years; goodbye equity funds and the wonderful demograhpic of the 1990s is leaving us quickly
11. There is too much speculative juice STILL left in the market; this will end with the illusion that a new bull is literally many years off...
I am sure I left out some other stuff..but that's my humble opinion!
12.because of the terrible losses people suffered they pulled the money out of the market and went into real estate and other non market things.this money will not be easy to get back into the market.i think i could take a generation for the people burned by wall street to forget and return with enough money to make a new bull market.
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