There is some merit to what you say SimpleMeLike. My plan is simply to trade the markets with techniques that are likely to be successful a bit more than they are likely to be unsuccessful, given the cycle in which the market is in, on any given time frame. That is why I can trade the markets in practically any environment that takes place within a cycle. Broad ranges, tight ranges, strong BO’s, weak BO’s, reversals, PB’s shallow and deep. Conceptually, I see NO NOISE in the markets. If price moves 1 tick there is a reason why it does so. Conceptually I don’t see the market as random. What is a bit random is WHEN something like a BO of a range will actually happen. But when it does happen there is a reason it happened and the evident pressures that were exerted to cause the BO can usually be harnessed for profit, utilizing certain techniques or tactics. I believe the market has inertia and tends to keep doing what it is doing until enough pressure is exerted to change that. Charts, in my view, are just graphical pictures of those pressures as they play out. I believe a trader, if they can learn to read pressures in a chart, can jump in at practically any moment and start trading, on say a 5 min chart of the ES. That is why I can get my lazy carcass out of bed at 9:30, grab a cup of coffee and start trading almost immediately. Or if feeling chirpy I can rise at 6 a.m. drink coffee, shower, eat, and be looking to trade the market on the open. I don’t need pre-market analysis. I don’t need news. The chart shows all I need. On a 5 min chart there are usually at least 8 to 20 decent 1 to 3 point scalps. Isn’t that enough? Once good at detecting them and trading them then position size is where the money is. A trader doesn’t have to look at, and try to find those longer trends to make money. Do the math. If a trader can average 2 points day (after all losses for the month) on 5 ES contracts he can make 10,000 month before comm. Yearly......??. Bump that up to 10 contracts...yearly?? .bump it down to 2 contracts. Even 2 contracts better than the average SS check. ok average 3 points on 1 contract day that is close to max SS benefit one can draw. My point is 4 fold. 1) learn the cycle the market is in for any given TF 2) learn and practice the myriad of techniques that give an edge for that cycle and learn how to implement them live. Get good at it and up size as able. 3) It is easier to read force and inertia and extrapolate that out (predict, forecast, anticipate, whatever tickles your fancy) on 5 min charts than on weekly or monthly charts. Said another way it is easier to predict (uh oh ...just open a can of worms) 5 minutes or 15 minutes from now than 1 month from now. Liken that to weather forecasting. You generally don’t hear the weather man predicting the weather out 6 months or ten years except for the climate change people...ROFLMAO. I well remember them in the 70’s predicting a time of freezing and cooling. Could make a body want to stockpile coats... boots...etc The so called freeze never happened so the narrative changed. Now days it is global warming. Stockpile the tee shirt and swimming trunks..ROFLMAO. 4)learn to read pressures and inertia in the market and you will never become outdated, at least in our lifetime. This is not about setups. It is about reading the pressures, the inertia, and using techniques to take advantage of those. Years ago, I day traded primarily one setup back in the day when stocks trade in fractions....1/4...1/8...1/2..3/4...etc. I would watch several stocks on the Amex and NYSE and when the specialist would open the spread I would jump in, take a slice out of the middle and do this over and over all day long. That game ended when they went to decimals. But, what I am talking about in the above will never leave a trader on the sidelines with no setup to trade. Bottom line. I don’t care what the market does each day. Up, down, sideways, broad, tight, slow, fast...my ONLY plan is to interpret what it is doing and pull a technique out that is suitable to trade whatever the market is doing in that session, at the moment. I admit it does take alot of time and practice to get good at this but it can be done and then no one can take it away from you. No HFT, no bank, no hedge fund...none of the big boys so to speak can stop you. Why? They cannot and I repeat CANNOT hide what they are doing. They can disguise it for a bit but no coverup can last long. The chart will show what they are doing.
The ONLY plan that works is doing what the market is doing. So...learn how to tell what the market is doing and what it is LIKELY to keep doing. Context is way more important than any single setup. And probability is way more important than certainty.
I trade with 2 robots programs each day that rake it in; they are governed by diurnal variation and circadian rhythm (how could they not) they trade without emotion so no PSY-CHOL-OGY needed here, and aver >$500/d each for the last 120 days with no change in settings. I trade with them, that is my plan, what you got volpri? And in less that 100 words would be nice.
Me, I dropped out of high school cause I made more money shrimping than our lawyer was making at the time. So half the time I don't understand what the gurus are saying, anyway. I just trade and make money and if that's the wrong way to do it, then I'm just wrong. I read a few books. Since they all say the same stuff, that means by proxy I have read them all. Half to almost all of what they say, I ignore, anyway. Sometimes there is a plan of the day. Sometimes not. Sometimes there is, and it gets changed. I'm still making money, though. I don't need aerobics or yoga and I sometimes trade in my underwear. Sometimes I don't trade in my underwear at all. Sometimes I have a bloody mary in the morning session. Sometimes just my cappuccino. Did I mention no aerobics? The more rules I ignore, the better I seem to do. So no psychology for me. No backtrading. I am front trading instead. Risk management? Yeah I make sure the upside is enough better than the downside to make the chance of losing instead of winning worthwhile, but my actual MAXIMUM risk is determined by what I am able to put on the table. Depends on the setup. The perfect once in a lifetime setup comes along, and I will bet horse, farm, and baby. It's just gotta be worth it. I am DONE with all the 1% and 5% and tedious calculations crap. No time for that. If I can't see my support, it ain't there and so maybe not a good one for me to get into in the first place. I don't read reports or news. The gurus say you must. You must do this, you must do that, or you are in the 90%. I say you learn from your mistakes, so get as many as you can out of the way and done with, so you can start doing more doing and less of the learning, and use the "how to day trade" books as light entertainment and fire starting. It has taken almost two years for me to realize all this. You need to read the books, then you need to ignore them. You need to paper trade, then you need to live trade and lose some money. A plan is like a paint by numbers Elvis on black velvet. Follow the steps and you will probably do okay, but well, only if you are in the 10%. Fling paint off your brush all over the place and you are the next Jackson Pollock and if you got it, you got it, Mr. Successful.
Follow the steps and you will probably do okay, but well, only if you are in the 10%. Fling paint off your brush all over the place and you are the next Jackson Pollock and if you got it, you got it, Mr. Successful. really - show me the numbers to support and substantiate such pontifications.
That is great you can capitalize on biological processes to extract money from the markets. Until we evolve into some other species (if you believe in evolution) then your bots should be safe Dr Spock. LOL