NEW Anyone Counting Price?

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by fireflyx, Jan 30, 2006.

What moves price in the market?

  1. Internals

    4 vote(s)
    36.4%
  2. Externals

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. Both

    7 vote(s)
    63.6%
  1. fireflyx

    fireflyx

    It's become apparent to me, thanks to your participation in the last poll, that there is a rather negative view of Elliott wave theory out there. 3 to 1 against, in fact. A number of traders have evidently gotten burnt with it.

    I want to begin by saying THIS IS NOT AN ELLIOTT WAVE THREAD. My intention here is to share some interesting things I've found with regard to price counting in general. My methods are based on a new and distinct system for counting price, NOT EWT.

    I am attaching a new graphic here that shows the counting sequences I use and attempts to illustrate my theory for their correllation - what I call "sequence flow." As the thread progresses I will be posting some real charts showing the sequence counts.

    My method is a far cry from EWT so if you've had a bad experience with Elliott, don't let that stop you...

    I almost quadroupled my account value over the last 2 weeks using this. I trade fixed odds, one of the more difficult forms of trading because there is no turning back once your start time kicks in. My last set (of 10) had 7 wins. I'm 4 for 5 on my current set.

    Most of my time (over the last 3 years) has been spent studying price movement, so when it comes to actual trading experience, most of you probably trump me. I've traded options but I've become a bit enamored with the abiltiy to double your stake quickly in fixed odds. I prefer the indices. Anyway, how you trade or what you trade really doesn't matter much. Price counting works in all markets.

    As this thread progress I'll be posting a good bit of explanatory content and graphics. I hope it will interest you and perhaps be of some benefit. I also look forward to your insights and opinions.

    When I first started counting price I didn't even know about EWT. So my methods are not an EWT fix, the're totally new.

    One last thing. Let's just try to have fun. We're all playing in the same sand box so why not just get along? No profanity (and no profane abbreviations) please. Thanks!

    fx
     
  2. fireflyx

    fireflyx

    Guess the attach didn't work - here it is...

    fx
     
  3. fireflyx

    fireflyx

    This chart shows 3 Nasdaq movements and all three low count sequences in succession from left to right...

    a 22 point, 14 pt. and 18 pt.

    rgds,
    fx
     
  4. fireflyx

    fireflyx

    All movements, at some scale, belong to one of the low count sequences. This S&P chart demonstrates the fact.

    fx
     
  5. fireflyx

    fireflyx

    Low sequences have the tendency to stretch over 3 larger scale waves. I see this all time in price behavior...

    fx
     
  6. fireflyx

    fireflyx

    Here's one for the day traders. A recent 22 point count in a 5 min. chart.

    fx
     
  7. fireflyx

    fireflyx

    Didn't mean to dominate the thread but I wanted to get all the charts up at the beginning...

    thoughts?

    fx
     
  8. trendo

    trendo

    How about making some realtime market calls, with clearly stated entries and exits IN ADVANCE?
     
  9. fireflyx

    fireflyx

    Good suggestion. I will keep that in mind over the coming week or so and see what I can do.

    I've already posted my weekly analysis of the Dow in the previous thread. Here it is again for convienance...

    Really, the entry is built into the count. It is always above or below the first red terminal dot. In special cases (such as in this graphic) when the terminal dot is not the high or low of the movement, the implied entry level is the high or low. In the case of the Dow chart here it would be 'short above 10997 @ blue 1'. That condition was filled the day that the Dow hit 11050.

    rgds,
    fx
     
  10. fireflyx

    fireflyx

    There are of course, cases where the structure of the movement does not define the terminal as closely as might be desired. I've found that these cases are somewhat rare, but when the end of the movement is marked by high volatility it can happen.

    The current 30 min. Dow and Nasdaq movement is a good example of such an instance. Here's what the Dow chart looks like...

    In such cases it is best to wait for the next count to come along rather than guess at the entry. I guess that goes without saying...

    rgds,
    fx
     
    #10     Jan 30, 2006