Neural Networks Revisited

Discussion in 'Automated Trading' started by maninmoon, May 24, 2016.

  1. This is a NN, not a MA breakout type rule.
     
    #151     Jun 23, 2016
  2. Simples

    Simples

    Sorry, 20 period change then.

    I'm guessing you are not "sorting" the prices, but just making it reverse. How? Do you make the numbers negative, or do you divide by the factor between periods? If there's differences, it could be explained by how you do it.

    If you make the change in percent, couldn't you just flip the sign? It's a bit different than most people do it, but I make it a point to always try to be numerically unbiased as towards direction. These are types of things an NN won't help with directly.

    Update: If you're reversing the bar order, why would you expect same performance?
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2016
    #152     Jun 23, 2016
  3. I am just reversing the bar order - no other changes. And Stock A is in a strong rally through the period, and therefore Stock AR is in a strong decline. I would expect the same performance because the only thing different is that the sign of the changes I feed to the neural net have flipped.
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2016
    #153     Jun 23, 2016
  4. Simples

    Simples

    Causality order have reversed too.

    Also depends if you feed absolute values or relative values.
     
    #154     Jun 23, 2016
  5. If the NN was trained on mostly upward moving prices, it probably won't fully understand downward movement even if it is just "flipped". I've heard of some people using one NN for price increase and swapping to another for price decrease. I can't remember if it really outperformed a single NN, but it's an interesting concept.
     
    #155     Jun 23, 2016
  6. userque

    userque

    The OP hasn't clarified which data set is being used to train the NN in the examples.
     
    #156     Jun 23, 2016
    Simples likes this.
  7. I train on the first part of each dataset independently, but with the same inputs (except reversed data of course)
     
    #157     Jun 24, 2016
  8. userque

    userque

    What's the output?
     
    #158     Jun 24, 2016
  9. 1 day forward change
     
    #159     Jun 24, 2016
  10. userque

    userque

    So you basically have a one input, one output NN.
    Input is 20 day price change, Ouput is the next 20 day price change...for the forward NN.
    For example, it could look like this:
    10,11
    11,13
    13,9
    9,8
    8,6
    etc.

    Is that correct?
     
    #160     Jun 24, 2016