BLSH, thanks for an interesting post and thread. Despite CoralReefâs grousing, I appreciate a good âcut and paste,â if it is worth looking at, as this one certainly was. CarolReef replied: âYes, the economy is not that great at the moment. WE GET IT!â I donât think he/she does. Krugman is hardly saying that âthe economy is not that great at the momentâ -- rather, he predicts âa long, painful slumpâ that âwill take yearsâ to emerge from. I donât know whether he is right or not, but I want to know what he says about it. Clacy divides the pundits into two camps, populated by âKudlow, Kramer, stock_trad3r, CNBC, etc on one sideâ and âBLSH, all of the conspiracy theorists and dooms day people on the other.â Clacy, Surely you arenât suggesting that Paul Krugman is a âconspiracy theorist,â so I guess youâre saying the is a âdoomsday person.â Friends, if a Princeton economics professor/Nobel-prize winner is predicting doom, I want to know about it. But again, Krugman said what he said -- he doesnât predict âdoomâ; he DOES predict âa long, painful slump.â
Their net worth is lower because they obviously bought too many big screen tv's and cars. It couldn't possibly because that's what the Man has been planning all along. Just remember all that money went somewhere. Anybody want to guess where?
Josh, you get 'it,' obviously. Whether Krugman is right or wrong (and as you've said, we won't know until after the fact, and even Krugman's prognosis is not an 'end of the world' scenario), he's competent, uses real data, and is worth listening to. Listening to him doesn't mean agreeing with him. We all benefit greatly from diverse opinions when we put trades or investments on - it may shake us from apathy, or we may learn things we didn't know of prior. If someone posts a bullish article, I'm all eyes and ears. I just want to see DATA supporting the case. It's nice to know there are others here who get 'it.' This isn't an insult or condescending remark upon those who may not - yet. They'll come around, or they'll ultimately get burned badly if they choose to ignore real world events unfolding before their eyes, or ignore data that is reliable and valuable, even if it's uncomfortable or stated by someone whom they personally dislike. That's the most beautiful thing about markets - they don't care about you, personally. They don't care what you look like, what religion you are, or what you eat for breakfast. They don't care. All you have to do is be more right than wrong, and they'll reward you handsomely.
Here's a graph of what he's talking about at the end of the article: source: Debt in wartime and here's today (hopefully household debt is similar to the above's private debt): Prudent Bear Ownership Society was a great warning that this was gonna end badly. Sorta like the 5 year plan in the Soviet Union went on for 63 years before the country dissolved itself.