As confirmed through today, I believe that the three net China darlings, SOHU, SINA, and NTES are going to collapse v. soon, and projects for a nice shorting/selling opportunity. Why? 3 Reasons: 1) Momentum breakdown: each stock is off its highs of the past few months and there is no underlying support. 2) Excessive PEs (market cap): SOHU: 176.7 (931 M$), SINA: n/a (770 M$), NTES: 92.3 (915 M$) 3) Unsustainable prices: During the past month each stock had been well above its 250 SMA by more than 2 standard deviations. Ex: SOHU was above its 250 SMA by at least FOUR standard deviations on each day through June 10 to 17. (i.e., the 250 SMA was between ~7.50-8.00, while the closing price was above 30 in each case). Now, for my near term price targets (an approximation): SOHU: $10-12 SINA: $8-9 NTES: $14-16 Comments?
Ironic... I just bought some shares of NTES today at $29 toward the end of the day. It is only 4 days from its high and made a nice bounce out of the low 28.30 range. I'll see what it does tomorrow.... Hopefully you won't be right until after then.
One report today is talking about buy 3 Chinese stocks for Chinese currency play, betting for it to float soon. I do not know which 3 since I am not subscribing to it. http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/CSR/WCSRD610/
Interesting that you should mention the Chinese dot coms. I just recently unloaded SOHU last Friday for a nice 126% gain and NTES for a 63% gain. It was great ride while it lasted.