Net China stocks goes bust...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by garfangle, Jun 23, 2003.

  1. As confirmed through today, I believe that the three net China darlings, SOHU, SINA, and NTES are going to collapse v. soon, and projects for a nice shorting/selling opportunity.


    3 Reasons:

    1) Momentum breakdown: each stock is off its highs of the past few months and there is no underlying support.

    2) Excessive PEs (market cap): SOHU: 176.7 (931 M$), SINA: n/a (770 M$), NTES: 92.3 (915 M$)

    3) Unsustainable prices: During the past month each stock had been well above its 250 SMA by more than 2 standard deviations.

    Ex: SOHU was above its 250 SMA by at least FOUR standard deviations on each day through June 10 to 17. (i.e., the 250 SMA was between ~7.50-8.00, while the closing price was above 30 in each case).

    Now, for my near term price targets (an approximation):

    SOHU: $10-12
    SINA: $8-9
    NTES: $14-16

  2. Ironic... I just bought some shares of NTES today at $29 toward the end of the day.

    It is only 4 days from its high and made a nice bounce out of the low 28.30 range.

    I'll see what it does tomorrow.... Hopefully you won't be right until after then.
  3. Chart added
  4. chart added
  5. Dive, Dive, Dive! :eek:
  6. zxcv1fu


  7. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    look top out
  8. Please elucidate by "Bat" indicator.
  9. Interesting that you should mention the Chinese dot coms. I just recently unloaded SOHU last Friday for a nice 126% gain and NTES for a 63% gain. It was great ride while it lasted. :)
  10. whowah


    sina graph
    #10     Jun 24, 2003