Neither Tech nor Macro

Discussion in 'Journals' started by fxintruder, Sep 12, 2012.

  1. The UsdJpy core is going its way as planned above. As I said I am looking at some catalysts to bring the price, after retracements, around the levels on the chart. Initial jobless claims this PM Gmt or any bomb from the EU summit could be opportunities for 79 and 79.40 . The bigger picture on daily as a remainder is showing the liquidity distribution as explainedin the quoted post. Above the 80′s I will decide if I maintain the position fully, partially or close it.

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    #81     Oct 18, 2012
  2. contra

    contra

    wooo, I totally missed this journal. This is what I kind of intended on doing when I started a journal here, but was waaay to lazy. Though I wouldn't have went so in depth on my strategy.

    I didn't read it all just enough to know what you are doing and who it's from. I think we come from the same school, but I am not sure who this is.

    Does the journal help you? I am not sure of your intentions here but there doesn't seem like many FX traders here, so you won't get a lot of feedback.

    one thing... you are using both tech and fundies here actually.
     
    #82     Oct 18, 2012
  3. Let's talk a bit about the way I trade, rather let me try to summarize it.
    As I mentioned in the first post, I don't like systematic trading (systems) whether they are based on tech indicators or fundamental indicators. For me reading the markets is more like a mindset than a strategy, I don't believe in strategies. I don't belong to a school of thoughts or rather I've studied everything and I don't think to be more successful than a tech or a fundie, but I do know that knowing everything is vital to see that 95% of what you learnt is crap.
    If I had to formalize my grid of reading and what drives it, I would say:

    Trend: Global macro

    Positioning: Liquidity distribution and market dynamics, information flows.

    Timing: Tech behavior due to tech levels (above daily) Fundamentals behavior due to data releases. Calendars. Current sentiment.

    Global macro is not the same as fundamentals. Its linked to macroeconomics, like monetary policy, global monetary and economics flows and the broader view of fundamentals and global politics. Global macro is also tightly linked to politics (e.g. knowing that the newly elected French president will allow Draghi to resist Germany and deliver the OMT program; that is, a printing machine. Or knowing that Merkel would in the end support Greece and Spain because the German elections are in 10 months and she wouldn't want until then any collateral damage to the German economy). Another illustration of Global macro is is for e.g. knowing, in terms of macroeconomics, that QEs carries hyperinflation risks and also that a global QE like now is an unknown situation. What conclusion to draw from this in terms of markets and trading ??. A fundie is just waiting for the cpi to tell him that inflation is knocking at the door to buy precious metals. A global macro will see that QE with no rising CPI means a more or less coordinated fight of the developed countries against creeping deflation. That intervention will bring an answer from emerging markets, hence adding to systemic risks, distorting flows and promoting false safe havens A global macro will also know that with all the coming bailouts and haircuts Greece is mechanically doomed, and will leave the Eurozone , but not before the tail risk is eliminated and this, is Euro bullish.
    The best markets for global macro traders are the Forex by its sensibility to monetary policies, gold, oil and global indexes by their sensibility to anticipations. These markets are global by their very nature and indeed are more or less overlapped.
    All this is very wordy but actually I do prefer being interested in global economies and politics than in what is driving AAPL or FB.

    Knowing global macroeconomics is a thing you can study. Timing and positioning is more difficult. More on this later.

    Note: By posting here I am not looking for a feedback and please understand I will not answer questions as I said in the first post. I don't tell much about my trades on ES (30% of my trades), Oil and gold, neither about my new passion for options strategies . But these times we are trading risk on/off behavior and this is what driving all the markets so far. I find it more interesting to deploy a swing trade plan and its follow ups than talking about every thing, mainly if the incentives are the same.
     
    #83     Oct 18, 2012
  4. Third add-on filled.

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    #84     Oct 18, 2012
  5. contra

    contra

    cool man. I don't care to say global macro, for me it's in the same bin along with political and geopolitical stuff etc. = fundies. simpler that way for me, and I am all about keeping it simple.

    I know what you are doing and where you learned the core of your principles from. I think I know who you are too. Full time since 2006? The way you are trading FX wasn't happening until the past 6 months or so?

    good luck.
     
    #85     Oct 18, 2012
  6. Remember the explanations given here about market dynamics and how price helped by catalysts gonna cross a liquidity cluster. Here is the daily chart showing the pair headed to the 200dma after macro data releases as planned. I have now 4 add-ons averaged at 78.94. therfore protecte by the 79.00 rounded number. I will add more as said here if the stops above the 200Dma are tripped. Decison area is around the eighties.

    On the global macro incentive, it’s interesting to notice that only Jpy pairs have a clear direction, that is a weaker Yen.

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    #86     Oct 18, 2012
  7. Are you a friend of mine? I learnt a lot about market dynamics in the past 6 months, but I trade full time for a while now and the most lucrative period was when I was scalping. I have nothing to hide, here my pseudo is fxintruder, but I post elsewhere under the name of Ocean, flytox and neoflytox. Who you? Imf?
     
    #87     Oct 18, 2012
  8. ammo

    ammo

    fx, just for fun look at mp on you index
     
    #88     Oct 18, 2012
  9. ammo

    ammo

    if this were a popularity contest the widest spots on the graph,are areas where it traded the most often,which may provide resistance..i like your approach
     
    #89     Oct 18, 2012
  10. contra

    contra

    I knew it was you ocean, wtf dude. lol... yea imf... how you been?

    don't get defensive bro, i was just fukin with ya.

    last i heard you went on vacation?

    I should say this dude is a good trader.
     
    #90     Oct 18, 2012