An entry level not that good, because didn't take into consideration the the existing home sales release today that could bring us lower during the liquidity search (some mistakingly call it stop hunt) since we were near a rounded number and a significant S/R. Often this mistake is based on aggressive bias mainly because some other pendings were not filled for few pips and would have been nice winners.
USDJPY closed +65p This can seem a bit frustrating since the trade reached +150p, prior to the BOJ release. We were in a real "buy the rumor sell the fact" scenario. Normally in these tactical trades based on a binary outcome I close the trade prior to the release; this time the BOJ QE was really huge (in Trillons) and thought that these upper levels were going to be tripped. What I am saying here doesn't mean that the initial plan is not going to unfold, it still can. But there is no need in chasing the expectations as this trade was purely based on market dynamics (nothing fundamental). How about the add-on filled at 78.75? It's still running near -33 pips. Why: Because as I said the size of the core candidate is bigger and 1/4 pips of it can pay the risk on this one. So it's still running until it's stopped as planned below 78.00 or unfold. It's away for me to give a second chance to the initial plan since the plan paid the risk. But there's more to this in a later post.
An accurate second decision is always destabilizing since it's the proof that you were initially wrong,. Not that much in that case just partially as it hasn't made a significant south leg tho a nice profit. What's interesting in this chart is that something can turn wrong without you knowing why exactly. This is because of the Forex bias toward techs in well trending pairs like AUDUSD. This move is technically driven, and I am thinking that where I exited the trade is the south boundary and were I entered is the upper one. So what? Let's become Tech like for until next week and put a limit sell at the same upper level but not before the price nears it so we know what's the prevailing sentiment at that moment. This ranging prices in tech channel are not difficult to trade as long as there are no real drivers behind the move and nothing looming on the horizon, like some RBA statement or Chinese releases.
We broke that lower boundary !! Doesn't really matter as I am pending to fade from the upper one. How about that technically driven range?? Something was looming on the horizon, but it's not easy to enter in the news flow after 2 months of vacation. The HSBC Chinese Pmi ? But this one was positive; there are other reasons to this breakout: 1: The sub indicator of the HSBC Pmi was ugly. 2: Most important is this: Australiaâs triple-A rating could be at risk if AUDUSD does not fall in line with weaker commodity prices. An S&P analyst was quoted saying "We could lower the ratings if external imbalances were to grow more than we currently expect, either because the exchange rate no longer adjusts to terms of trade movements, the terms of trade deteriorates quickly and markedly, or the banking sectorâs cost of external funding increases sharply." That lose lips was enough to break the range seeing the thin liquidity when it spreads. But what is important for me is this is supporting my bearish sentiment on AUD, and I am starting to think that 1.05 area can be a good place to fade from. But If it returns to the upper level of the range we are still technically driven, I'll be there to add with specs. If it doesn't return that high will look for other levels and which upcoming catalysts can take us to them, with in mind SELLING at a BETTER PRICE, always. #AUDUSD pendig shorts around 1.05 and 1.06. Cons Good numbers from China, or Chinese QE. Pros: The currency is overvalued, and is impeding Australian GDP growth, this Idea is winning ground among RBA board.
Buying the Euro and its local volatility. I have added to this tactical one on an averaging platform that bring the entry price at 1.299. The price now is more than 45p against me. How far I am going to hold this? No that far, may be just below 1.29 not more. But I am holding for very precise reasons: 1: I made the mistake to not having taken into account the PMI's releases, the chinese HSBC and the spanish 10y auction; prior to my positioning (timing). 2: My take on this posted earlier is for me still valid: Tactical Trade: The main Idea behind that position is the likely structural shorts covering massively their positions. How is the IMM data on this will be known on Thursday (COT report). Why would they cover is purely linked to inflows coming from other assets to day too expensive seeing the big diminution in the tail risk (EZ collapse). My take on this: On the attached chart you see my pending at 1.3022, and more importantly the several levels I think its going to reach on a probability I base at 80%, 60% and 50% for 1.33, 1.34, and 1.35 respectively. Above 1.33 stops and pending interests are stacked in 200p width providing a huge liquidity area. For that reason this seems to me the sought after place where big accounts can close their shorts without pushing the market too high against them while liquidating . Also all these levels are subject to attacks from different sides since they are likely barriers protecting big exotic options at rounded prices, yet this need to be confirmed . Above 1.35 is an uncharted territory, and I think that it's not easy to go higher unless the short covering is really massive. 3: Post QE digestion periods like now are big nonsense generators. Some wants to cover, others are not sure and want to drive the fragile sentiment to be filled at a better price. I am not euro bullish, this is just, as stated in the initial post, a tactical trade based on the Draghi put that will inevitably induce structural money flows leaving false safe havens to rebalance their portfolios. At best it can trigger some significant short covering. My targets are clearly defined and if it goes that high I will fade from there, if not I will forget all the euro pairs but EurChf I consider being a core position (trade posted few days before). Local volatility The account killer in trading forex intraday is the local volatility, as what is happening now,which is induced by a fragile sentiment facing conflicting news or thin liquidity, . The best way to attenuate it is by accurately timing the positioning. This is achieved by knowing how solid is the current sentiment and if upcoming news can reverse it, when are thin liquidity periods and what is the positioning on fx futures. Knowing all this you can still be battled by big specs, usually those from middle east, who can handle big volatility and push the price too far from your entry price. Stupid algos can do the same in thin liquidity. The other more effective way is to use Option strategies to hedge your position at a defined risk, giving time to your plan to unfold.
Getting rid of the local volatility. This post is quite interesting in deciphering the way I trade. The most Important thing to me in this job, is knowing where is the optimal level, where to position for the price. This is what make the real difference with a global macro trader or a tech. The former will valuate a price and position his take profit there if the current price is under/over valued. The latter will do what his system is saying without taking in consideration if it worth it or not. Still both of course can make money. Me, I will spend time to know where are they, and what distortions their positions can bring to intraday price behavior. For global macro its more a "set course to above/below a rounded number area" than a price level, for techs only the most used indicators are flow generators (200dma, big fibs, S/R...). Then, having the macro direction and the techs harbors, I have to know what are the upcoming turbulences: News releases, planned meetings; etc..I will never know about the unpredictable news, the rumors, the big names intentions... But what I do know is that the known upcoming news are usually already priced in when they are released, and the turbulence happens when they are far from consensus. And what I do know too is how hard (to what price level) this new turbulence is going to impact the price against the global macro direction and how the Specs are going to use that distortion to enter at a better price. This means they drive the market with the help of techs liquidity and post-news panic until reaching a nice level to embark on the global macro carrier. Specs will never embark for too long. They make money on every swing. Is that the game, all the game? Nope. It would be too easy. More on this later. But for now and the sake of clarity. I position myself in line with macro and techs direction and use distortions to time my entry where liquidity is available for the specs. Sometimes on short term basis I can go against and liquidate and reenter at the next liquidity level (tactical trades). I didn't do that for that EurUsd long and the current focus that can bring a big turbulence is the outcome of Spain and Eurozone bail out negotiations that have started already (Financial Times). Does this means that I am always right? Not at all, but it's the way I see it. And it's quite efficient so far. If I have to give an advice to those who suffer from local volatility, it would be to switch to nothing less than a daily chart.
Week #38 RECAP. All these trades were posted here: Closed positions: AUD.USD : +180p USD.JPY : +65p Running positions at the time of writing: EUR.USD @1.2999 Status: Tactical Stop : 1.29 Target : 1.32 Current Position: BE EUR.CH @ 1.2035 Status: Core Stop : NA Target : NA Current Position: +103p Hedge: No USD.JPY @ 78.5 Status: Add_on Stop : 78 Target : NA Current position : -55p Pending interests: AUD.USD short @ 1.055 or1.06 area EUR.USD short @ 1.33 or 1.34 ESZ2 Long @ 1.454-1.455 These pendings are not placed as orders, rather areas with alarm where I am planning to enter intraday and will comment before/while doing it. Conclusion: This is not a conventional week: Need time to be in sync with the market and rebuild the mindset after the summer break. Post-QE (BCE, FED, BOJ) digestion with big fundamental and flows implications not clear yet; plus China and RBA expected to ease. This uncertainty is not suitable to plan core positions nor significant tactical trades. Globally I am not very happy about the positioning I had on EurUsd and UsdJpy. This needs a continuous work to sense what's behind the sentiment and identifying where is the liquidity distribution and who are the players. But I maintain as explained before the remaining add-on on UJ. The EU tactical long@1.2999 is at stake seeing the big focus on Spain bailout. PS: Didn't mention here my ES trades and other futures (GC, CL, DAX) and fx options closed or still running, since I didn't post about them. More development and trading plan to come for week #39. Have a good week end.
WEEK #39 The â¬uro: I maintain the scenario,described here, that the Draghi put and the Fed QE are going to push the EurUsd around 1.34-1.35. But most important is to develop here what is impeding this until now: 1:From central banks to politics. It seems that we are now focusing on political outcomes before deciding whether or not these QEs are worth bidding. First of all is the Spain request for a bailout, this wonât happen before the budget bill later this week and more probably not before the big regional election on Oct 21st that Rajoy might loose if he admits openly that his policy, after demolishing the public sector, needs now a European bailout with all its conditionalities and foreign controls. 2: Did the broader market understand what Draghi has accomplished by the Outright Monetary Transactions program (OMT)? That is, until now the European Monetary Union didnât have a lender of last resort as all the others nations do have. From now on neither the EZ can collapse nor any of its members and no speculations can threaten the Euro existence. The monetary transmission mechanism among EZ countries is fixed, eliminating soon the wide spreads between the core and the peripherals . This reality now needs time to spread over the market ambient pessimism, but not too long a time . 3: Is the EuroZone (EZ) economic situation too bad to support any bullishness. Yes, but no one wants to be Euro bullish, we just want to accompany real money flows in need of diversification, when they start seeing that the EZ tail risk is largely reduced. That same real money that flight to safety , in opportunistic false safe havens exposing its portfolios to high risk like those labeled GBP, SEK etc. 4:The possibility of a rate cut by the ECB. Yes EZ will need a rate cut, to re-balance its monetary policy with the Fed, after the 3rd QE. But frankly no one can tell if it is going to be euro supportive or not, although ECB would think It can help EZ growth by weakening the Euro. But again this will not interfere with global portfolios re-balancing needs. We have here the main reasons that could explain the current uncertainties at which we can add the ugly global macro outlook. But our scenario is not built on a risk apetite or something, but only on global capital flows restablishing equilibrium after the Draghi put; we donât want to look at anything above 1.34_1.35. When we will reach, it will be time to see how to fade. THE RISK (SPX). I like Spx and ES, I was thinking to buy ES around 1.4555, but stood on the sidelines. This is probably going to head north after the digestion of QE3 and the reduced tail risk in the Eurozone. But I think that this needs a catalyst and a nice one would be from the housing sector. Any good news from there and we would see a nice rally; bad news and its going to range from nfp to nfp. So my take is to stand by and try to get some news/rumors about the housing data. We could also assist at some front running in the âbuy the rumor sell the factâ scenario. But more globally, I think itâs going to rally sooner or later, because QE money has to be spend and this is made before better macro data, which by the way are not that bad in the US, we just need some help from the housing sector. For now, prior to the housing starter, the best trading way is by using some options strategies to avoid to be shaken by the current market mood. THE USD QE is generally USD bearish, since its promoting risk appetite. But where to sell the USD, vs what? UCAD is over stretched. AUDUSD is not clear since AUD is obscured by Chinese data and RBA intentions. USDJPY is surely the only pair where the USD can turn bullish but we donât want to go against the fx correlations flows, and not sure if BOJ interventions are not going to be shrugged. Vs the euro we said that the capital flows are going to support the Euro, hence one clear bet is again buying EurUsd. Vs EM currencies these also are already overbought. So no clue for now, better wait for some indications from China to buy AUDUSD when it settled around parity if it get there. or when the risk starts to rally after the housing trigger. INTENTIONS: EurUsd: bullish but already badly positioned (see recap week #38), I have hedged my position with a put limiting my risk to the initial stop. I will probably purchase a November call strike@130. ESZ2: now looking at buying around 1432. Thatâs all for now, since I have to manage my running positions on EurChf and UJ. I will surely plan some tactical trades during the week and for that I am looking at Draghi speech on Tuesday, US jobless claims and GDP on Thursday plus some Japanese data on Friday.
EURJPY long @ 100.05 /status: tactical, /Stop : 99.60 /Target:102,00 Add-on at 100.70 (buy stop ). I was a bit late on this one. Initially I decided to look at a price around below 99.50.00, But finally I took 100.00 targeting something around 102.00. I based that initial entry at 99.50 on the idea that a really bad German IFO number could push the price near that level, and some specs would help it to get there in search of liquidity (mistakingly called stop hunt). The drop isnât deep enough so far (may be during Asia) so I have decided to look at 100.05 with second buy stop @ 100.70 The latter will act as an add-on or an initial entry if the first is not fiiled. In terms of money management itâ s the same size split in 2. Why long? I think that the BOJ jawboning is not going to help the Yen vs the USD. But it will make it vs the Euro, with this one probably supported by global inflows due to portfolios diversifications. (see previous posts on this). The Idea is quite simple: Real money will need sooner or later to buy the Euro to diversify its exposition to risk; BOJ is doing what it can to weaken the Yen. So we have two currencies opposed by their likely directions providing in my view a good opportunity. I also keep in mind that I had last week a trade based on BOJ stealth intervention after the US QE that didnât happen; plus I was placed at a very bad level cos I didnât wait for some news release to clear the path. This time, I was aware of the Ifo release and used it to enter that low even tho I was expecting something near 100.00. Risks to the plan. 1:Rumors or news about the rejection by the Spanish government of a bailout; rejection or delay after October. 2:Friday Japanese Data not soft enough to amplify BOJ jawboning. 3: Yen is so versatile because of its real safe haven status that it is often moving on his own despite all the market expectations or BOJ interventions. #EURCHF Running long that is at 1.2035, /status: Core see here. I will know more about this trade after the 00.00 GMT SNB chairman speech on Tuesday. Like adding or waiting.
Letâs track that EurJpy pending longs commented just above. The Add-on was filled and the initial at 100.05 missed by few pips, hence the add-on at 100.70 is becoming the initial so far. But why pending that high with a buy stop while seeing the price reversing? Simply because intraday short stops are waiting above 100.80 and when they are tripped this will push the price higher (orders dynamic). The other Idea behind pending that high is that the price needs some momentum and motivated interests to get there. Below it was possible that it could reverses after being filled. That high is just for being on the good side of probabilities. How about 100.05?: Because of the rounded level just below (100.00) with bunch of liquidity (stops and limits) waiting there. And the 0.05 is just to get filled in case, as itâs often the case when pending interests are strong, liquidity is overwhelming the upper area of the level. Seems here that it flowed over til 100.20. Is this trade on a good track? Not sure seeing the upcoming Draghi speech, and the likely collateral knee-jerk. The current upmove can be just some positioning driving Risky assets at higher levels to fade from But I will use that opportunity (after Draghi) to add at a lower level if it happens that the liquidity below 100.00 or lower is needed to support the fundamental picture.