Sorry very busy week for me. Some updates on AUDUsd. As mentioned above, I locked the position for the 2 last add-ons after the 1.050 . The AudJpy leg still running from the initial pos. If the lock is not triggered I am going to keep these add ons during nfp, cos the Sandy storm discount will temper any bad number impact. Same for ES_F.
EurUsd. Just to mention that I bought a risk reversal option strategy at 1.300. Expiry Feb15 . This has been done on Tuesday (before the current sell off), and it means that I am becoming bearish on the Euro. Next week I will consider building a core position on the spot targeting 1.20-1.15. More on this later.
Week 50 updates. Sorry didnât post for awhile due to some sad events in the family. I am going to reduce my posting here to one or two posts a week until debut of January . Anyway here are some updates of the running trades: ES_F : Posted here. . Everything is on the chart, waiting for 1430.00 and 1460.00 to add on pull backs. Now heavily loaded around 1.4000 area and will do the same at these next two areas. Target is the Fiscal cliff deal for upper add ons. Aud combo: AudUsd, Add ons 2 and 3 lock was triggered closing them with +60p. Add on 1 and initial position still running now around + 200p. AudJpy: Initial position here still running with around +200p, remember that I have closed 3 add-ons already with +170p. I donât intend to add again as I am heavy on AudUsd and UsdJpy. UsdJpy: Core long mentioned here still running with +400p. Will probably lock some add ons after Abeâs election next week. Target is an unavoidable way weaker Yen. Wanted to mention that I was starting to feel bearish about the Euro, but I am not very sure about it on the medium term. Will comment on this when I âll be less busy.
An interesting situation now on ES posted here . As you know I was planning to add some size around 1430.00 and 1460.00 but tomorrow we have the FOMC statement and this is prone to QE4 rumors and such. Iâll wait for Bernie speech, in hope to get a better price before adding and if it pops up Iâll do it on retrace. Anyway QE4 or not, the next decision area is the fiscal cliff deal, as I am seeing that monetary policy is now falling behind fundamentals, although a less dovish fed can bring the price at cheaper levels. Interesting to notice here that I am hoping to see the price going against my opened positions, itâs because it allows me to average the add ons at a better price.
UsdJpy mon amour act 2 Shinzo Abe looms, Fed gonna twist or something again and Japanese economy in an unavoidable need of a weaker yen. Being a swing global macro trader is knowing why the market is wrong but entering only when it starts understanding it. Here we can keep significant loads during next year, allowing us to add longs with shorter term targets at no risk. After Obama elections I closed the beginning of the leg and its numerous add-ons, posted here, because of the market shifting on the fiscal cliff. Now the path is clear and even though the Yen can pull back time to time it will always seek its way North.
UsdJpy 83.00 barrier taken out. About the UsdJpy here. Added before the long awaited barrier attack, called on twitter real time. I will lock some add-ons when we cross 83.50.