Hi. Yes, in general I do think it is just a matter of definitions. People would claim not to use TA, but if you sat next to them and saw what they did, there is a good chance that, in you opinion, it most definitely IS TA. However, in the case of the t2w guy, I really dont get that impression. As for 'just asking him'...well....I did! He simply PM'd me a story about a jewel dealer or something! He's not a 'friend' at all unfortunately. Over the years after spening too much time on trading forums I think i've built up a good radar for who is 'all talk' and who can likely walk the walk. This guy got my attention, hence my interest in his posts and my communication with him. I generally completely ignore cryptic posters. I think they are purposely 'saying nothing' in order to look mysterious amnd unique for the sake of it, but not this time. It's a shame though that he couldn't have given me some more help. I mean, even if he came straight out with it and told me what he was using, surely i'd still have to put a lot of work into it and it wouldn't just guarantee me riches! another quote from him: "How can you trade against the herd if you are running with them? The surest method will place you next to the herd when they are right and on the other side of their trades when they are wrong! If you ever wonder who is on the other side of your trades when you are wrong I can assure you that it is probably me or someone just like me and when you are right we will have usually entered well before you, that I know for a fact, simply from what you have told me! Successful trading is a conventional business, you are simply looking for exploitable opportunities to add value. One of the reasons that it can take years to become successful is that people often need time to develop the required business accumen. Clear thinking, rather than delusional fantasies, must be your guiding beacon"
..beginners luck.. ..santa claus rally.. ..mini skirt indicator.. ..sell in May....also in june,july aug...
These are the words of a person who is guided by pure ego, a trait that often leads to disaster in trading. The phrases "when you are right" and "when you are wrong" focus attention on you rather than on price action, which is reflected in the actions of the herd. If you are trading with the herd, you are right. If the herd turns around shortly after you join them, and you put on the brakes (execute your protective stop), then you are still right! If you evaluate losing trades, you'll find that most of them are the result of either trading against the herd, trading when the herd is milling around with no direction, trading with so much baggage (size/leverage) that you're unable to turn around fast enough when they suddenly change direction, or assuming you know in advance with certainty what the herd will do in a certain environment because you've seen particular herd behavior repeated many times before and stubbornly remain in a losing position because the stupid irrational herd will eventually come to its senses. The herd is NEVER wrong, because the herd represents the majority of market participants at a given point in time. Whatever the majority of market participants are doing right now is reflected in price. If you're running with the herd most of the time, you're making money. You can trade against the herd, but your position won't turn green until the herd turns around, meets you back where you started, and continues in the new direction, at which point you are now running with them, not against them. Trading against the herd can work out just fine as long as the herd turns around and joins you in the direction you're moving BEFORE a predator picks you off while you're weak and isolated without the protection of a herd.
The herd has nothing to do with it. It's the most money that controls direction. This most money can be one person. Therefore, TA makes no sense as you can't predict the whims of whomever controls the most money in the trade at any given time. Sorry, but this is fact. 1000 traders with 500 each, one trader with one million-- one million trader decides to go long with all his capital, 500 dollar traders all go short as a herd. The market goes up regardless of what the herd does. Right? If so, I have just proven TA to be nonsense.
It's about volume. If you take a simple TA101 pattern of '123buy' & volume is low, subsequently a pattern's expectancy is lower when compared to the times when big bids start coming into the market. So when this pattern doesn't lead to a gain TA Naysayers will always proclaim victory by saying - See! I told you!
I wouldn't go as far as saying it's nonsense but it does have limitations but all forms of market analysis have limitations.