>>>Well folks , as I often do, I've alighted back on an earlier name- OMRI. I just went in, not with profits from some stock I " challenged " but from leftover scraps from an ALKS position... Source of funds can come from either side I remembered... Can't put my finger on why exactly but this name is the buy for today. If you don't recall this is an stock that missed earnings and landed here a ways back... actually in the $20's it found a lot of Houses supporting the stock still it went lower I like that. It's time to buy. ~stoney
Here's a Nice NotableCalls piece on the name. NC blew the call but the thesis may be correct. lets hope so! ~ stoney Several firms are out in defense of Omrix Biopharma (NASDAQ:OMRI) after the biosurgical and passive immunotherapy products maker posted a 71 percent fall in quarterly profit partly hurt by certain unrecognized and deferred revenue and lowered its total product sales view for 2007, pushing shares down 20 percent. The uncertainty related to future shipment of Intravenous Immunoglobulin [IVIG] to an European Union country, as well as related unrecognized revenue resulted in the company cutting its full-year product sales view. Omrix said it was not certain as to when it could record the revenue or if it could even continue to sell the product in that country in 2007: - Cowen notes Omrix reported 2Q results below estimates but they believe fundamentals remain fully intact for above average growth beginning in 2008. Two unpredictable, one-time events impaired 2Q sales gains. Important positive catalysts in 2H07 should bolster confidence in the firm's ability to execute its long-term growth strategy. Firm reiterates their Outperform rating and advises investors to use near-term weakness in the shares to build positions. They expect any share weakness to be short lived as important milestones occur in the next six months. The PDUFA date for Thrombin is Sept. 6, and the company plans to report results from a small Phase I trial of its fibrin patch at an analyst meeting planned for October. Label expansion for Evicel for general surgery should be issued by Jan-08, bolstering sales potential. Finally they expect IVIG marketing partner FFF Enterprises to win FDA approval for IVIG in mid-2008, providing upside to estimates. - CIBC notes they did not expect 2Q to miss this badly, but their fundamental view on OMRI is actually unchanged, and they feel the stock would be very appealing in the mid- 20s where it may open. The worst may well be over, and a few sizeable catalysts this year can drive both EPS and the stock a lot higher. Maintains Sector Outperformer and $43 target. Firm notes management confirmed a new IVIG bidding in one EU country, with a decision coming in 4Q. They believe the potential deal size will be similar to last year's U.K. order of $30M (OMRI got 2/3 of the U.K. contract). The 2006 U.K. order added $0.50-plus to EPS, and CIBC has no VIG in estimates. - Citigroup notes yet another issue - this time in IVIG - created a Q2 shortfall, reduced guidance for 2007, and should lead to a sharp correction in the stock price. While they are disappointed by another execution snafu - the core thesis of a big ramp in the Biosurgery business - still looks intact and they would stick with this story. What's Next - FDA approval for stand-alone thrombin is slated for September 2007, the IVIG issue could get resolved, and a government tender for a high-margin VIG contract could create an unexpected catalyst in Q4:07. Hence, Citi expects the current negative sentiment to turn positive very soon and for the stock to recover quickly. Assuming the stock opens at $24, the shares will be trading at 15x new 2008 EPS estimate of $1.51 (+135%), which is too big a penalty for the recent execution missteps. They would take advantage ahead of what should be much stronger results in 2H:07 and a string of high-profile product catalysts. Citi's revised $42 target price reflects their lowered EPS outlook for 2008 to account for lower IVIG sales, which now appears to be a worst case scenario. Maintains Buy. Notablecalls: Oh my, this one's surely a bounce play. I must say I don't know a whole lot about OMRI or the markets it operates in but reading the defenses gives me goosebumps. This is the type of stuff that bounce plays are made of - stock down 20%+ on problems that at least seem short-term in nature, plus sizable catalysts ahead. Plus you have valuation supporting the story. Paying 15x for 100%+ grower is a joke, A JOKE! I wish some gung-ho analyst downgraded it this AM, giving you guys decent fills early on. Grab it at $24 and be prepared to pay up! Actionable call alert! Update: I'm now hearing Oppenheimer is out with an upgrade on Omrix, taking their rating to Buy from Hold saying they believe investors are overreacting to a revenue shortfall of roughly $8mm in IVIG sales to one customer, and would use any pullback in the share price as a buying opportunity.
Stock what I am highlighting is the process. The sorting and research that must be done EVERY week to insure (1) a successful day trade or two day trade to book lunch money and (2) a positioning into a healthy name for later take off. It takes more effort than I let on... to do this day in and day out year after year... and when your coverage universe is as broad as mine it takes quite a bit of finagiling to make sure the proper amount of chips are placed on the right name. My Two Big Cap Purchases For After The June 7th Turn are... URS Corp GPN Corp.... ~ stoney
OPENING BELL!!!!! And I've been up since 5:15 am working..... they say trading in your underwear is easy.... Really want to focus on AMAG today because I have long followed and they did a China deal last week with SSRX for their lead product iron replacement. The cash is insignificant but the Chinese will certainly green light everything, something our beloved FDA has been slow to do... ISIS you know is one of my faves it's got to be bought at some point... Busted IPO to a certain degree 3 Par... I've been reading a lot of nerdy tech blogs and journals, I'm starting to get a good vibe on this name... The symbol is PAR. back to China for a sec.... The earthquake situation has a lot of water born illness attached to it and SVA is sure to benefit, we'll track that for a bit... URS got a lot of good pub last week unfortunately just as we were dotting the I's and crossing the T's on our research... so a pullback there would be warmly received here... And a pullback is what we are getting out of the gate... as we are entering the period I predicted would come... oil goes down and stocks go with them.... ~ stoney
Eliot wavers it's interesting but your waves seem to be aligning against general 20 week cycle theory... From an EW service-- The near term indicators, which displayed massive RSI/MACD negative divergences at the highs, are now rising and approaching overbought. As a result of all that has been noted thus far, we have labeled the recent SPX 1440 high as the top of the uptrend since March. Then the first decline to SPX 1373 as wave 1 of the next downtrend, with this rally is being labeled as wave 2. Also of note in this bear market, every time the DOW has dropped 600+ points, it has signalled the start of the next downtrend. Lastly, each wave 2 has retraced a good part of the wave 1 decline, about 70.7%. If this is to occur again this would project a wave 2 retracement to near SPX 1420, and DOW 12,930. Since the first decline in the SPX ended about 10 points below OEW 1383 pivot at 1373. A wave 2 rally to 1420, 10 points above the OEW 1410 pivot would seem in order. Therefore, we are expecting this wave 2 rally to end early next week, and then the market should selloff. >> Now we were using June 7th as a BUY window... so maybe these both can be correct... Eliot is a little early but correct we are going to get a move to 1410 at least but not this week, we go down further now and next week rally harder and the %'s are greater and we can still stop at Eliot Wave points along the way. ~ si
Oh Baby nobody panic! We are losing the game here. GROUP THINK ALERT**** TODAY IS THE DAY CHART GURUS GUT THE GUMPTION AND THE FACE TIME ON TV TO LABLE THE MARKET A BEAR RALLY. I think we all knew it was but didn't want to admit it. We are at classic retracement levels but that's a punk answer... where were they when we retraced MORE than 50%? Quiet as clams... now, in retrospect, it's a bear rally... We will be betting against this group think starting June 7th or so..... ~ stoney
One of the best things you can do in NYC when the market is kicking you in the face is have a nice long lunch with TWO MIXED DRINKS. I don't know what it is but that second drink really feels good in the hot afternoon sun. These idiots on TV love to pin the tail on the donkey todays' collapse is s&p related... I don't think so... Anyway back to the drinking one of the nice things about NYC is you will always find interesting people out drinking with you. Outside at Tabla there was a young guy who looked like a taller Jimmy Fallon being interviewed buy a youngish guy scribbling feverishly under the table... I strained and strained and the best I could tell he was some kind of basketball scout or coach or player... guard if a player... On the other side of the aisle some uber bankers, CSFB is around the corner, although I'm not saying they came from there. From them I got a lot of US attacking Iran talk... I do that old odd couple trick of dropping the napkin over the shoulder and then I pick it up real slow and listen in... at groin level my ears are strong... my wife always loses it when I drop the napkin... I usually tip her off by saying " Never Assume because when you do you make an ASS out of U & ME! ", a great Felix Unger line. From the bankers I was able to piece together this rumor making the inside rounds today-- The story originated with the Debka File, a mid-east intelligence website. It claims Pres. Bush is very close to ordering a stealth bomber attack on Iran's Revolutionary Guard installations to "disuade" those units from continuing to train and aid the Iraqi insurgents. > Well, WHAT DON'T I do for you all? ~ stoney
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee. I've been banging away all day on the buys. It's close enough to the 7th for me and since the next move ought to be in small cap I've pulled the trigger on a few. Laugh if you will, I bought Chinese Jewelry play FUQI (sorry jade!) The numbers are just too strong and it recently broke out of a base a settled today right back on the bottom half of it so I took it... risky... but the type of stock with growing institution support that's ready to move... I made a great buy in SATC. It's only great because (a) the company is so cool. flywheel tech. (b) it's pre earnings my work shows will be turning a corner type earnings (c) despite being a under $3 stock it was a rock all day at the markets worse. That tells me strong hands great concept in early bing bing bing.... and it's green tech of course... I'm eying CSR and just trying to get the gonads up to buy the hypogonad stock IDEV which did have a beautiful puke today to a real low, I'm just not ready yet... and HEK that blank check water play.... it's got me peepin at it not in yet. I've sold my beloved Northern Oil for a 25% plus gain to do all this.... Ire' ~ stoney
Alright guys it's CULMINATION time end of days stuff. Most of Europe is down 2% there is a battle going on for the Brokers this is getting ugly. Lets put our cards on the table. The very essence of how the big brokerages make money has been severed. there is no more 30X leverage ANYWHERE because they accepted FED MONEY. In the long run this is all GOOD. These fools & their computers cannot be trusted. In the short run their business plan is seriously in trouble their future earnings are in deep trouble each time they raise money they further dillute a run is on folks a couple hedge funds won't back down here- will Lehman go under by june 7th????? The fact that Lehaman was buying back their own stock yesterday is no voter of confidence it's more like when a country supports it's currency and it DOESN'T WORK! All these stocks need another HUGE haircut but NOT AT THE EXPENSE OF THE AVERAGE BANK.... I do so hope for stability in the regional banks.... oh this is a scary time we seem to have one foot in an depression and one foot in a small cap rally... it's all very confusing. Lets talk ideas... The market every day presents you with opportunities today it's the very stock we are tracking IDEV. The chart never lies and the chart indicated bad news coming and it came today by way of FDA bird- another round of testing please! OH BABY 60% HAIRCUT in the pre on only 3K volume... who makes these first trades i wonder.... Well lets tie together the fact that this tiny bio has two products already on market and Nebido the product in question is being injected into ballsacks all over Europe- They love it! But seriously the adverse event at the sight of injection you will read about in the news release today is a collection of oil that seeps into the blood stream and cause an allergy like cough-- it's hardly like they are keeling over and DYING. One scary incident and a bunch of minor copughs gone in 10 minutes.... if you have never been able to get a date because of the size of your sack... what's a 10 minute cough... how about all the red faced people taking Viagra?This is a major 1 year set back for this co.... @ $1.65 or whatever with the idea of holding for a year for a full 300% gain back to $6 when they run through the process again... it's VERY TEMPTING.... it's also VERY BALLSY AND VERY SCARY... investing often is my instinct is to buy it but in an abundance of caution I have awoken the sleepy Bedford analyst cubical of as a certain hedge fund and requested an annoying analyst review if he covers it which he may not... I'm not sure these guys at the hedge fund knew what they were getting into when they took on my mother (and me in a managed account!) That's one of the funny things about the bank game you run into some very eccentric people. ~ stoney