Another reason to be short the market right now: LATE UPDATE - The Treasury announced another week of pounding ahead as it plans to dump another mountain of new supply on the market next week. Meanwhile, the Fed again did a big drain in OMO that was more than enough to offset the increase in the TAF. As the Fed feeds liquidity out to the hinterlands via the TAF, it continues to punish the Primary Dealers (PD) by withdrawing the cash to pay for the TAF from the PD trading accounts. The Fed has given no hint of any letup to this policy, which is resulting in shrinkage of the monetary base at a negative 2.5% annual rate. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=2719
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=home&sid=a42143EyVai8 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aF_f8gLLNvn0&refer=home So, the house of cards has started to collapse and the ugly truth that was being hid from investors is revealed. As more and more of these stories emerge the lawsuits will mire financial institutions and infrastructure. There may be a lot of cash on the sidelines but until things are fixed it is likely not anxious to jump back in to the bog which is why we are seeing a lot of money going in to physical infrastrcture projects and away from much of the securitized products developed in recent years. Enron was our warning and we didn't heed it, now rather than the fraud being confined to a couple of rouge companies it is the multi trillion dollar credit market that is riddled with fraud and bad practice, does anyone really think that we are going to get away with it with as little pain as we have had to date and recover so quickly, and this with oil at $130+, inflation rampant, and the consumer tapped out amd maxed out? This is 2001 not 1998, a bear market rally that is on its last legs if it isn't already over.
madmaxer it's doing that because I believe the great fluctuations in other names in the space... it can't race uphill with no press releases and it's brothers dropping $4- $8 a piece.... I believe NOG will be first out of the gate when we resume the rally for we are the most stable and the only one with insider buying. I tweaked a little off the table in the run but I'm holding a lot of shares and considering buying more. I just don't know how far an oil retreat will go now there are some saying $20 and I wouldn't want to get in front of that.... then again these super bubbles have a way of going on longer than one would think... will driving be way down this weekend? probably. Will oil fall next week probably... but I'm just not sure... Don't count NOG out. At least not until I'm out! ~ stoney
I have a very good indication Pepe will be driving in traffic at 2:00 and not shorting the market. But the lack of an afternoon swoon should not be taken as stocks stabilizing as they would have you believe on TV. Rather The Dow looks especially unhealthy to me it seems to be a raging Bear Flag at this point and what's worse a flag formed beneath the Dow's 50-Day MA- never good. The path of least resistance is suddenly down. It's safe to say the index must make headway soon reclaiming a good chunk of these losses. I think that can happen with a Cycle Turn Date of June 7 and a firm direction in place- Down... if we muddle lower from here- I'm not worried. Even a plunge to the May 21 low will not ruin this ascent up.... As Art Cashman said from the floor this morning- this is the recession move lower vs the debt crisis move... and since the recession is being called by everyone as short and sweet... this correction cannot be as bad? Right? On this point I'm torn- I'm not so sure. Things feel pretty bleak to me, gas stays high, consumer clamps down, car sales really have a huge impact on GDP I'm learning and the overall economy when you include leasing.... Then again Transports say India & China are back in play... Probably the worst scenario would be a recovery next week on light volume luring folks in and not reclaiming major ground... Well then that June 7th date might just be walk away day... We shall see. Interesting Times. This oil situation is truly out of hand. ~stoney
Looking for a bounce to 1400 at least, they will spin this home sales data (and the big buys by FMN and FRE) and it just CAN'T get any worse right? This MUST be the bottom
What up everyone! Man had to fake an injury to get one more day in Ct. Why do these people with jobs freak out so? Chew my strategy is somewhere between these two polar opposites ... For once it would be really nice to just walk away. It's a well worn record but what can happen is I get out to a very fast start and then give a lot back during the summer. Now the market tends to suck during the hot days so how much of that is me and my own personal burn out and how much is an investor who pushes ahead despite market conditions... that is the question. Then again there is just so much money on the sidelines I find this pullback VERY corrective in nature it won't be until we are SURE housing has reversed and earnings are going back up. it won't be until we are all 100% invested that the carpet will be yanked... usually you rally through the first few fed increases so I imagine in the long run I'm in the game for a while longer. Now as to what to buy I wet through the following screen today--- ELON FUQI TWTI MELA WM HEK DLB GPN CSR ISIS OMRI WLP GNVC CLMT APWR STEC ITRN STEC VLNC DUG IDEV.... That's a lot of research folks! Anyway, I've come down to TWO BUYS FOR JUNE 7th TURN DATE* They are (1) CSR ( 2) IDEV... With CSR this is a legit Chinese big cap with an very obvious tie in to the Olympics. The vol accum has been very good the past few days and it's green lighted on most of my buy rationals it's a hefty $15 off it's high with huge earnings. With IDEV. What can I say I am a glutton for Bio punishment or massive reward. can't help it. Love the space.. These guys I brought up earlier in this thread they have a cure for BIG BALLS Hypogonadism... now I tell you my wife and other gals from my past have always told me I skirt the very boundry of hypogonadism, I do wear out kitchen seat's fabric and my jeans, sometimes it's an embarrassing fix for the tailor but a great many men have a serious problem here in the gonads and only a fraction ever seek treatment... so in the long run you have a product Nebido it's going up in late JUNE to the FDA my birthday is in late June this would be a sweet sendoff for the year... Interestingly the CALL CONTRACTS TODAY 3,321 and the PUT 25 (when I checked) that's a lot of people betting on a positive outcome yet the stock has not moved from $4.50. An opportunity here perhaps... towards the end of the week there is cancer bio news... could the sector get a lift t his year? last year it did not. ~stoney