Negative Divergence

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, May 13, 2008.

  1. #61     May 19, 2008
  2. Port you have brought a big smile to my face this morning. Yes of course I use the street.com PAY SERVICE!!!!

    Man! And you provide a link with that grinning evil monster!!. Let me tell you a brief story about your favorite news service dummy. They had a beat the street contest a ways back and I was supposed to get two weekly winners t shirts and some third place prize. Unfortunately they contacted me when I was taking my one vacation in three years to the DR. When I got back one week later and got in touch they refused to send me my t shirts!!!! Much less whatever prize third place was... in the dust up that followed I got the impression that the very same grinning fool was putting out the bad word about me because I email him on his mistakes a lot. Fine no prize for stoney. Whatever virus induced link you have provided is a pay service... I do not need that in my life in porno or stocks... all the information you will ever need to trade is available free through google searches or comes through the box at my brotherinlaw's office or is passed on to me by friends in the industry. I find the best stuff comes from tacticaltradingoutlook and they have no relationship that I am aware of with the street.com and they use the same cycle research I employ elsewhere... another good read is Dr Joh Fassel on the market that can be tracked down in a blog search and something called MPEG market or something like that is free when you have a bloomberg machine. Poor poor Port you are coming off as an asinine novice when i wanted so you to have some standing or character. It's time to take the man panties off and pay me a visit! Our day will go like this, first you rummage through my buys and sells then I take you over to the gym where you can be my kung fu training buddy! It's fun, we'll work through some MMA moves and when we are done if you are up to it we can go to Eisenberg's for an egg cream which I will dump on your head before sending you on your way. I always welcome your barbs but PLEASE I've told you twice I have a running argument with the fools at street.com do not pollute my threads with any of their services. I actually like their bio guy but the rest... please.
    ~stoney

    I second the motion that I am the devil.
    signed.
    Booyah!
     
    #62     May 20, 2008
  3. Well it's 9:00 am and I've been up since 6:00 running my stock scans in my head and here are the seven interesting stoney stocks for today.

    1- Bio 3 pack- I've been toying with buying ISIS I like the name and the ceo did ok at a conference yesterday Jeffrys had some positive comments.

    Obagi Med (OMPI) was recommended recently at notablecalls where it promptly fell 25% interesting young co with money making products being sold... Roth has put out a $14 PT which may get some interest in the name I have to search back through my notes and see if it was Roth who made the same call before that was picked up on notable... And old Kramer favorite IDEV which when he liked it was working on controlling his bladder and now when I like it it's $4 not $9 and I'm keen on their HYPOGODADISM product Nebido... more on this later but 13 million men (and Portis) have this problem and only 10% seek treatment out of embarrassment.

    GU Gushan Energy has been on a big roll and has a fabby chart it's the kind of stock you try and get into on a pullback far east was down last night GU is quietly pushing through higher pricing....

    GPN is a Russian global payment system??? Got to do more research here but the chart has caught my eye a few times and the CEO was generally bullish in tone at a conference yesterday.

    STEC is an interesting story they have a plethera of new low power products and are trying to replace the old disk drive.... got to feel good about this name but is it fairly valued here?

    HEK is a blank check co I had not heard of. They made their first purchase today they paid $625 million for $220 million in rev and a net of 70 million - a bottled water play in China... the timing there is obviously pretty good with the earthquake and such....

    This is the first batch of stocks I will comb through and try and find a winning play for this week. ~ stoney
     
    #63     May 20, 2008
  4. Afternoon update. of our morning trackers STEC looks the best it has traded it's volume already and has attracted steady buying throughout the morning.

    GPN looks good on a chart too (daily) but there is little vol today to speak of.

    To this list a couple other stks of interest....
    Two friends JOE & DUG.

    JOE has had whispers of a take out today judging by the cold calls I've been getting. A little check into the options yield some nifty clues... 1,405 call contracts vs Put volume of 148 contracts (as of this morning)
    the implied volatility is very high... something over the weekend?

    DUG the ultra short oil play is putting in a cascading low today and at $26 this is setting up for a quick $7 trade, if oil would ever fall. Judging by the superspikes today in my Bekken oil plays BEXP, CLR, NOG, GEOI... I would say that we are near the end of this frivolity but what will happen to S&P earnings after oil falls??? Is this a case of be careful what you ask for? From Bloomberg today- Take away Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips and profits at U.S. companies are the worst in at least a decade.Without the $70 billion that oil producers earned in the last two quarters, profits at companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index tumbled 26 percent and 30.2 percent as of last week, the biggest decreases for any quarter since Bloomberg started compiling data in 1998. Energy companies made up almost half the income growth reported by S&P 500 companies in the first three months of 2008 as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel.

    The results leave the benchmark for American equities vulnerable to declines as oil companies' costs balloon and production slips, according to Bank of America Corp., Charles Schwab Corp. and Allianz Global Investors. The industry is getting less profit from a barrel of oil than at any time since 2005, just as the rest of the U.S. economy is sputtering. Still, energy shares posted the S&P 500's steepest gains in the past year, bloating their representation to 15 percent of the index.

    ``It's kind of a Catch-22,'' said Joseph Quinlan, 49, New York-based chief market strategist for the investment management unit at Bank of America, which oversees $643 billion in client assets. ``The better energy does, the weaker the rest of the S&P. It masks some of the weakness.''

    Earnings Disparity

    Energy companies in the S&P 500 reported an average 25.9 percent gain in first-quarter profit, the biggest of the index's 10 industry groups, data compiled by Bloomberg show. For the broader market, earnings declined by 18.3 percent, based on the 441 companies in the S&P 500 that already announced results.

    The drop increases by 7.7 percentage points when profits for energy producers are stripped out, according to Bloomberg data, making the contribution of oil companies the biggest in at least 10 years. Even after taking out financial firms and consumer companies that reported lower earnings, oil profits accounted for almost half of the overall gain of 11.02 percent for the S&P 500, Bloomberg data show.

    >>> So we must ask ourselves as we rallied lately into these puke earnings... did the high price of oil actually save the market!!!!! It's ultimate stoned thinking but maybe yes! Some of the biggest hedge funds have begun bailing from the oil trade...

    Caxton, Atticus Sell

    Caxton Associates LLC, the $12 billion New York-based hedge fund run by Bruce Kovner, sold its entire 430,955 share stake in Exxon in the first quarter, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings released last week.

    James Simons's Renaissance Technologies Corp., a $30 billion hedge fund firm based in East Setauket, New York, unloaded all the 54,600 shares that it held in Chevron last quarter.

    Atticus Capital LP, which oversees about $19 billion and is run by Timothy Barakett in New York, cut its holdings of ConocoPhillips by 15 percent after dumping 1.81 million shares.

    For Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, the ``real'' price of oil should be closer to $80 a barrel. The San Francisco-based firm, which oversees $1.4 trillion for clients, is ``underweight'' energy shares on expectations that oil prices will retreat.

    >>>Of course if we get that Liz Ann drop to $80 which I agree with that 37% decline would severely damage the S&P's earnings and the headlines would not be good.... just 5 years ago the weighting of these energy plays was much less, just as tech stocks ballooned and then devistated the nasdaq... the oil plays are ready to scuttle the S&P... so do we want oil to go down or not? Now I'm confused even more but the DUG is looking mighty tempting to me today.
    ~stoney
     
    #64     May 20, 2008
  5. Another charter airplane co goes under. They had the nba playoff contract Spurs spent 5 hrs on the ground sleeping in their plane last night.

    oil $130 and we are suing OPEC! The second shot has been fired (they fired the first). Now we called for this downdraft before it happened so we should not panic today... The dollar is diving too though which is problematic, not seeing the run to bonds either.... people just seem frozen. S&P is coming down to what now is a support level at 1,400 it won't be until we break that and get a lot of hand ringing and negativity than we rally up again.... Well it's a long slog till June 7 isn't it? ~ stoney
     
    #65     May 20, 2008
  6. Good Morning folks!

    Boy was that funny yesterday watching the talking heads insist on explaining why the market dived. Idiots. I don't know which of them is the most absurd they all qualify... my favorite moment is the bashing of SNDK's CEO for what he said, it is really absurd. He said what we all know!!! Who in their right mind thought electronic gadgets were taking off in this dead transitional period after the holidays? The price of oil is banged over our heads every day retailer after retailer has told you traffic is way down.... where is the surprise... Things sucked in April- that's obvious... so when CNBC harps on this being the turning point for stocks it shows just a total disregard for the inner machinations of the market. The market cracked first when the credit card info came out we talked about it here and the technicals deteriorated every day after until the options ran out and then swoop down we go.
    There were people on one day saying buy and then Kramer on the next saying take a little off the table....

    lets talk about Kramer. I had the misfortune of being trapped in my bedroom last night where I have an air filter machine ( guests over ) and I watched a little of that damsel's show.... wow it was over the top- I'll try to sum up fropm memory.... Ok he told folks to keep buying the very stocks about to crash Oil and Agriculture! Wow it took the breath away. Then having missed massive moves in tech of 15% to 24% a stock he had all his minions out of tech he has turned around now and blessed " new tech " that's right old tech is now google and msft and new tech is.... parker hannifen. Honestly I though the guys in the white coats and butterfly nets were going to run out and capture him... After that he went on to ask his viewers to help out with the picks... becoming more interactive and " teaching " more - "I want you to be able to do what I do..." he said, one day I won't be here..." That day can't come fast enough....

    Ok where we left off yesterday was with STEC looking the best but after a full nights sleep I really want to go with Obagi Med.... or Omrix a new name for today I pulled off seekingalpha....

    Omrix's main growth engine - the range of biosurgical sealant products, with sales expected to grow 75% this year. Omrix's crowning achievement over the longer term is the advanced sealant for the prevention of acute bleeding in surgery which it is jointly developing with giant Johnson & Johnson Inc. (JNJ).

    Teams from two Johnson & Johnson divisions are partnering with Omrix on the development of the sealant on the basis of technology and ingredients that are already approved by the US Food and Drug Administration [FDA], so one can safely assume that there are unlikely to be any difficulties in obtaining FDA approval for the sealant once its completes the Phase II trials now underway. Omrix president and CEO Robert Taub expects Johnson & Johnson to mention the venture with Omrix again, when it attends the Citigroup Healthcare Conference opening on Thursday in New York.

    >> So it's a lead anyway we'll match it up against our other names today and see what happens... feeling biotech don't know why...
    ~stoney
     
    #66     May 21, 2008
  7. Well this always happens but the more I research OMRI the more I like it.

    They had a bad miss a ways back and the stk free falled from $25 to $15 it's been in a tight stable 3 month base, I like that pattern.

    Potential driver this thursday? Eh I'm not counting on that but the nature of their miss- based off large orders to countries that are not repeated yearly- I think over shadowed some good growth here.

    There has been some nice insider buying. That's always good but it's the type that is more reflective of good investors meaning smallish $400,000 dollars worth for a dude that unloaded $3 mil at $30.... officers that made out well are buying the stock at these levels can't deny that but they have so much dough from their sales they can afford to... still they are not apt to throw their money away... in the long run this is a positive.

    What I usually do now is challenge a stock in my account to make me do this move. i won't buy this OMRI today unless something explodes in my account up into a sell zone... say NOG....~stoney
     
    #67     May 21, 2008
  8. pepe' do you want to say something?

    2:00 been berry berry good to me....

    Yes pepe, yes indeed.... where will this all end Pepe on June 7th....

    Well. Dis situation berry berry bad. Now no one care about debt no more crisis no housing no suddenly it's out of control commodities weakening dollar stagflation and a fed out of bullets..., stupid people nothing new here.... except an 8% rise in de fuel in one month. He he. De May 9 low, around the 1,384 area will hold. Der is another layer of support near there the 50-day MA at 1,367. De DOW shall find de support it needs at that same May 9 low which = of 12,715. 100 points beneath that is the 50-day MA is at 12,617.

    A rally built on hopes and dreams of your big rebates ha ha. Already the price of gas has surpasses the rebates you fools.... retail is toast. ha ha. Ay Caramba when a society falls it's sooooo apatizing sometimes. he he, well you know pepe's has an axe to grind he was not treated fairly at CSFB nor at Smith Barney... well for now I leave you wondering about that blank check co HEK.... their aim to become a water co.... good pick for a blank check co but more shares will have to come to market; transferring to NYSE lends some credibility to the transaction... more work to be done here.... you know the dreaded health stocks need a look here> look at a 2 day on WLP.... stoney is going to have to suck it up and buy that and BMY too -if he wants to make any money from here... but don't tell him I said that... Pepe still angry about some other stuff....
     
    #68     May 21, 2008
  9. Mundame

    Mundame

    Hmmmmm, I put NOG onto my list, thanx...............was that 11.49 enough to call it an explosion, Stoney?
     
    #69     May 21, 2008
  10. Oh no is that you Pepe?

    Alooooooooo!

    Oh man what time is it? Ah 2:00 already! Pepe why do you always come around at 2:00. it's as if your timing this with other players it's not right!

    he he he. yes it's awful isn't it, you crybaby... look at your charts eh? 1:59 and we are at 2480; 2:15... 2460.... like a locomotive I'm here again baby. And there's not a thing you can do about it....

    Pepe what would it take for you to leave this nasdaq now?

    Well when oil stocks crumble I'll probably move over to the s&p.

    So is that a way of saying buy tech?

    No.
     
    #70     May 22, 2008