Negative Divergence

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, May 13, 2008.

  1. Come on Stoney. You once stated that your just some guy in the Bronx who stays home in his underwear trading stocks on IB which is probably 99 out of 100 traders on this site.

    Then you state that your running 3 million at a hedge fund. Well? Which is it?

    I'll take your picks with a grain of salt as they seem to reflect nothing more then a coin flip. Anyone can throw a bunch of picks out there. Even a broken clock is right at least twice a day.

     
    #31     May 14, 2008
  2. PORT LETS GET THE FACTS STRAIGHT EH!
    MY BASEBALL TEAM IS IN THE BRONX I AM ON 22nd street east side. YES I TRADE IN MY UNDERWEAR!!!! I " run " 1.7 million of my own cash and it is managed for me at a hedge fund I don't own a hedge fund I use one. I also have a say in 4 million more held in trust for myself until 2019. So if i ever decided to the entire weight of what i could toss at the market is closer to 5.7 million. I'm sure you are trying to get me angry on purpose what REALLY HURTS FROM YOUR POSTS IS THIS FEELING THAT I JUST KEEP THROWING OUT WINNERS AND IT's SO EASY... COIN FLIPS... YOU BASTARD LISTEN CAREFULLY EVERY SINGLE STOCK TALKED ABOUT BY MY ON ET AS A BUY I HAVE BOUGHT. I WILL GLADLY INVITE YOU OVER TO MY HOUSE TO GO THROUGH THE REAMS UPON REAMS OF UNOPENED ENVELOPES IN MY CLOSET. EVERY ONE IS A BREATH HOLDER FOR ME THAT IS WHY THE HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE AND THE CONSTANT HERB. Say what you want
    I can't stop you but UNDERSTAND THE PERSON YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT IS KRAMER WHO DOESN'T PUT UP ONE CENT ON HIS IDEAS... HE'S THE ONE SPITTING THEM OUT... I'M THE ONE MAKING A LIVING AT THIS POINT. I've given you two choices go through every single pick I've made here and total up my success rate or come pay me a visit PM me and we'll work it out and stare into the abyss of my closet where every single name found here on ET lays on the floor. You can clean up my apt a bit too after and then come back on ET and I will welcome you back.~ stoney
     
    #32     May 15, 2008
  3. gobar

    gobar

    whats the call for today stoney?

    up in the 9.30 area and red by 10 AM?
     
    #33     May 15, 2008
  4. THURSDAY.

    Empire state was very bad this indicates manufacturing in the great state which living in it I can tell you is accurate. A MAY NUMBER fresh info.

    TREASURY CAPITAL MINUS 48 BILLION FOREIGN HOLDINGS DROPPING FAST....
    this negative holding RARELY HAPPENS.... only twice before that I can remember... ARE OIL STATE BEHIND THIS OR CHINA..... OR RUSSIA....

    INVERTED HAMMER TIME!!!! After the Nazdog spurted up yesterday and tested its 200-day MA,buying interest was attracted. Someone besides us sold (institutions) into the strength during the final ninety minutes... bulls who bought the breakout became trapped and started selling, further fueling the late day slide. Vooolaah (french word) the Nasdaq formed a bearish "inverted hammer" candlestick on its daily chart, and to make matters worse it was a failed breakout above the 200-day MA. Now throw in what should be by tyhe end of week "lower highs" on the daily charts of the the laggard S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.... might be a tough week next.

    I think it is safe to say if the Dow and S&P don't rally back and close above yesterdays rally highs
    the charts will become quite messy indeed. we've got a lot of fed speak today and a significant talk from the NY Fed who rarely speaks (10:50)... more economic numbers.... they ought to all roll in bad now.... someone will pick up on this shrinking of foreign buying of our dollar in the press over the weekend (Barrons).... now that I think about it this is why we spoke so forcefully about the dollar at the last g8... there was a whiff of this in the air... this gets dangerous folks very soon... can you raise rates to support a dollar into slowing economic conditions... I believe " stagflation " would be lowering rates and allowing inflation to soar while in a slowdown what would raising rates into a slowdown be called in the econ books... besides suicidal? ~ stoney
     
    #34     May 15, 2008
  5. Ansare

    Ansare

    Stoney or anyone, where do you track foreign debt holdings?

    Thanks,

    Ansare
     
    #35     May 15, 2008
  6. that dude on cnbc in the pits, Rick Santelli just shouted it out as I was typing! He thought it a valuable point people were overlooking for now....

    Interesting day today there was some real volume behind the buying which is to be expected at options experation but is interesting never the less. Friday will be very telling no doubt. I would really love to flatline at DOW 13,000 for a while to digest and S&P, 1,400... but I fear next week those will be but support points we hope we hold.
    I will up the selling along the way scaling out of my more frisky plays. Trees don't grow to the sky.
    ~stoney
     
    #36     May 15, 2008
  7. Ansare

    Ansare

    Thanks, Stoney.

    I like Santelli. Seems like he's one of the few that actually seems willing to put down the pom-poms for a few minutes and speak the truth.

    Ansare
     
    #37     May 15, 2008
  8. we will touch the 200 sma on the S&P

    we may break it but it will be a false b/o

    the area between the 200 and 50 SMA is going to be a trendless sideways choppy action until some very unignorable negative unemployment news comes out
     
    #38     May 15, 2008
  9. She be commin' around the mountain.

    Take this with a grain of salt, a friends mother died last night and general steel went with her causing stoney much confusion. Am I feeling bad about one and can't stop thinking about the other or vice versa? It's raining my body parts all ache and I've got to drive two hours shortly.... still you can see it... UGLY WEEK NEXT. When you have a short term bear view you start searching for comments that match your mood I found this from technicaltrading I have no idea who they are but it reads nice if your grumpy-

    The VIX closed below the bottom Bollinger Band Thursday, putting it in position to generate a pretty rare and reliable "sell" signal. We show this chart tonight. Once the VIX rises back inside its Bollinger Bands, above the bottom band, we will have a "sell" signal on the Daily chart. The last three times this occurred was late February 2008, late December 2007, and late September 2007. Prices fell substantially starting within a week or so after each one of these signals. We believe there is an excellent shorting opportunity coming over the next week or so, for those with high risk appetite. For conservative traders, be aware a multi-week sell-off is coming, and you should prepare for that, either being willing to stomach it, or lighten up a bit, raising some cash. Something else that is interesting Thursday: Our Secondary Trend Indicator rose to positive +23. The last time it was that high was February 26th, 2008, which was promptly followed by a 100 point decline in the S&P 500. The previous time it hit a level near 23 was October 9th, 2007, at 24. That was promptly followed by a 150 point drop in the S&P 500.

    As a stock addict I still managed to buy one today ALKS I hate myself so but that's part of the game.
    Doubt Hate Fear Regret why do they have to raise their ugly heads? There's a dam in China about to blow water all over their plutonium stockpiles. Afganistan is going to be the first country to riot for food... more to follow... it feels like the polar bears are dissappearing or something very end of world all the sudden... EVERY TIME I DRIVE MY CAR I PAY $50. Once a week on the weekend- $50. All this tingly feeling may be the precurser to another debt shock, I fear it is... it can't just be this Kush that's making me feel this way...

    I don't usually burn out until July.... but maybe the pressure of buying a second home has brought in on early.... I'm up something gaudy this year 16% or so while the market is down 10%, the laws of averages might catch up to me here... reverting to mean... I think it's safe to say after a short pullback small caps will roar... we are setting up for that.... because russell has made a high... but the big divergence between them and the DOW is concerning to me... And I don't want to get trapped in a series of round trips. I have done that before folks that's not a good place to be mentally... nor is seeing a lot of stocks get away from you.... I'm feeling options have held up the market this week and at the very least it's 2% down next mon tue.... a flurry of bio love.... and down again... end of week... bad close fri.... earnings done.... what's next? long wait until fed meeting... Shorting Retail 2X Ultra as an index- I'm sure it's out there. If someone knows the symbol would they drop it here? Thanks
    I fear the economic picture is not good. 1.5%-2% for an extended period compared to say Germany right now... not good... As for all this overseas growth... we shall see~ stoney
     
    #39     May 16, 2008
  10. Where do you get the energy to type all of these updates?
     
    #40     May 16, 2008