Were going down, but how far remains to be seen. Not all that important if you keep it within reason. Retail had a pop today, and don't let sideways or slightly up for a couple days fool you, please... That is the one sector to jump on, unless your a faz type. Im likin the srs a ton too. What troubles me the most is that commodities are shaky. If they can stay up while we retrace we are ok. If they make new lows, grab your ankles ladies. Prechter also said the same a week ago or so. So both bigger names in EW callin it. Nenner , sp?, cycle guy, said much the same today as well. I didn't like like last time I saw him. His timing on the short covering was off by a good month and he was a jerk about it. But they said today he was at GS. So... I'll shut my piker mouth on him. And just say thank you for your time. I know Prechter messed up a few years back, but he is looking great this whole bear. Like I said I'm keeping this close, in anything I'm in, and if SPX touches 940 Im out. GL
My problem is that I cannot see the next big thing where the jobs are. In 1980-1990s, we had the technology, and in the 2000s we had the consumer, the housing, finance and the digital conversion. Technology has more or less peaked. Except for some green jobs, I see no growth, which is very scary indeed.
You are making perfect sense. Don't let the fraudulent 'green shoots' crowd ever talk you out of the simplest, most rational and direct route (not that you would). And those green jobs? They're a lot more hype than substance, in both numbers and permanence. It's all about jobs. Without jobs, nothing else matters. Not interest rates, mortgage rates, not lending, not inflation, deflation, LIBOR, commodity prices....nothing.
I had a trial subscription to Charles Nenner and although he was looking for higher prices off the March bottom, he never got his clients LONG because the technicals that he also looks at never confirmed his alleged cycle low. Also interesting to note, his analysis more often than not would not trigger a buy signal unless the market made huge moves . . . in otherwords, by the time that he "triggered" you into a BUY signal, the market had ALREADY surged 25% off the lows. - - - Not my cup of tea. I also subscribed to Neely recently for a couple of weeks, and was shocked to see that he went from a Bullish stance, to a Neutral ( and then Bearish stance ) within 2-days all because the SPX missed his weekly closing target by literally, a few cents. He had been looking for a SURGE up to 950-1000, but because he didn't get an SPX weekly close by a few pennies, he turned around and got super BEARISH, only to then get stopped out of a short S&P trade (within just 3 days) and watch the market SURGE as he had previously predicted. As also noted by a previous poster, he is really into labeling his Elliott Wave counts with simple "A", "X", or "D" type labels, and does not get anymore specific than that, thus you are left without any real basis in Elliott Wave Theory to understand his methodology. Last I heard of Prechter, he too was looking for the start of a 3rd Wave collapse, but needed one more short-term rally to the upside to complete the Wave-2 (counter-trend rally) that he believes we are currently in. Interestingly enough, the entire cast of characters on Fast Money were all now decidedly Bearish. Time for a contrarian move?
You claim that you are only FAMILIAR with Neely's "analysis" . . . but since when is Glenn Neely's "analysis" different than his "calls"???
True. What you say about Neely is spot-on. But that wasn't Glenn Neely on CNBC on June 17th before the market opened. That was Charles Nenner.
Thx for that Landis. I was burned by the last serious channel break, must have been 6 weeks ago by now. It looked very much the same. I threw up a junk chart real fast, is this what Prechter is seeing? I was looking at the same. Not sure on time frame he is looking at. However, I also saw this 6 weeks ago. And jumped short much to my dismay. At some point maybe these triggers will not work because of the fundamentals. If people are being forced in to risk, if they are going for asset inflation etc, these dips are all buying opportunities. In a conspiracy way, if they don't save people's 401k.. what then. I read China is forking over 500 billion to put in equities. Which equity, so I can buy first heh. Last thing I want to do is out think this and miss a run. Anyway thx again.
And herein lies the ROOKIE mistake that most posters are making on this thread . . . notice that they KEEP TALKING ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND EMPLOYMENT, as if the market gives a rat's ass! Given their thought process and what they deem is "important" to them, it is clear that these posters never got involved on the long-side in this rally, and made money from it. Instead, they were too busy rationalizing WHY the market SHOULDN'T be moving up. ET posters like S2007S are so guilty of being "trapped" in this kind of philosophy that it isn't even funny - - - they clearly have not one technical bone in their body, or the slightest clue of how the commodity and energy stocks correlate with a weaker dollar. I can wholeheartedly tell you that the market didn't give a crap about the Economy back in August of 1982. And for those that thought that IT SHOULD . . . well, they got left at the station. As you so succinctly put it . . . you really don't want to OUT-THINK this one. Watch the OIH, which is sitting precariously on its 40-day MA, even though the July Crude contract has yet to take out its 21-day MA which lies about a $1.50 lower. Watch how the coal stocks move. They are very oversold and any kind of move to the upside will trigger them back into a BUY on the daily charts for a good trade. The FXE is appears to be in a Wave 4 pullback which has already completed a smale A-B-C down to 138. If this thing starts back up again you can easily target new highs and another 10 handles ( like the move off the March lows ), and more importantly, the ENTIRE COMMODITY and ENERGY SECTOR will most likely move with it! Price is EVERYTHING.
I always put greater weight on anecdotal than published. Half the shite I read in the media is moronic, ax to grind, sensationalized for the story. I'm more in the sky is falling camp than not but I'm also cognizant that the carnage may be far worse in developing economies than America. I too don't know many people who're suffering nor do things look to me any worse than 89-91 let alone 80-81. Even in Florida I'd hardly call the situation dire. My neighbor is a perfect example. He owns a gutter company. Naturally his business is WAY off. It's not like folks are taking out home equity loans for improvements. So as he was bitching the other day I asked him, "are your installers at least making enough to live on"? And he said, "yea they're still making 500-600 a week but some of them were making 80k a year from 02-05." WTF?? If in this environment unskilled gutter guys are still making 25-30k a year it's hardly depression city. And if 46k Miamians can turn out on the most unimaginably hot, humid night to see the Marlins while the Tigers pull 30k almost every night, it makes me wonder. I'd like Daal to tell us how Brazil is. Or if someone here is from China.