Needing TA help now ! ....and later.

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by deucy28, May 13, 2013.

  1. deucy28


    Needing TA help now and later for these....

    I am a pair trader. (My charts posted on MAIN / Trading / Charts of Note since Aug 1, 2012.) I am prepared to hold and add to a position over a month or two or three. Theoretically, I am even prepared to stay in a trade with dead money even longer in instances in which I have reasons to be confident. Although rare to carry a trade more than three months, the subsequent stock plots justified my confidence. Because I am not a momentum pair trader and more a swing trader, technical formations of stock plots could be a highly helpful consideration.

    I know little TA. Traditionally, I have chiefly ignored TA and done well by manner of adding layers to the trade. These additional layers have been immensely profitable such that it more than compensated for the first layer (inception of the trade) on occasions in which it may have been closed for a loss. I can't help but believe in many instances, that TA could arguably have been helpful for timing in entry of a trade. Why allow the first layer to take an unnecessary hit or only a small gain ? Besides, I am very patient. Even should waiting for a more favorable entry to the start of a trade result with a disappointing "letting the train leave the station without me" event, there are sooo many other opportunities to trade.

    CAT DE is ready to trade now. But I see jeopardy in being Long CAT going directionally against me if it is forming a head and shoulders now and is setting up for a steep decline, and I see the jeopardy in being Short DE going directionally against me due to its historically long trend of increasing price support since fall 2011.

    I solicit advice from those familiar or quite experienced with TA for this pair and future pairs I would like to post at this thread, should there be reasonable response to my requests for TA opinions. In return, should it interest some posters here, my pairs under consideration will be a heads up to what I am looking at before I post the pair as a trade on Charts of Note. Furthermore, timely response to my inquiries should be recognized by name at my chart postings,especially when it all goes well !

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  2. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    Wait to go long CAT only if the diagonal triangle is broken to the upside.

  3. deucy28


    That makes sense ! I know what you are referring to.

    Understand this, though. I may not be able to become technically correct all the time. While I am waiting around for such an occurrence as that CAT break out, the current, excellent quality of the spread opportunity may diminish. I don't mind some diminishment, I just don't want it to evaporate on me. That is the risk for waiting.

    In your judgment, is the threat (by current appearance) of a dramatic drop for CAT be so very possible, that I should cool my heels before getting into the trade ?
  4. deucy28


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    Never worked just fine........Couldn't wait for T.A. confirmation.
  5. Sergio77


    I believe that when you do pairs trading you should not care about individual stocks but only about their spread.
  6. deucy28


    Individual stocks are components making the spread.
  7. ==================
    That makes sense;
    not the part about ''TA being to late'',LOL Unless you exspect us to believe you trade only by fundamentals,LOL.

    Long CAT probably does work as well as short DE.Unless you think single stock uptrends last for ever; CAT dividends could help shield against a dramatic drop-not a prediction.:cool:
  8. deucy28


    Comments PLEASE !

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    Comments PLEASE !

    MMC reports before the bell day after tomorrow, Wednesday.
  9. using a 1 hr chart, draw trendline (regression lines): July 26 Low to August 5 Low.

    This puts a buy in the low 42zone (42.twenties) and tops out the regression line just over 43.

    Treat the 42.20 line as a giant s&r pivot. The trend is up, looking to get in there depending on PA around that pivot. Otherwise, fails the regression line and you know what to do.

    I don't do daily calcs but that is what you are after. On the daily, draw the line regression off of the June 24th low.
  10. deucy28


    I'm on it ! TY
    #10     Aug 5, 2013