Need to Regroup

Discussion in 'Trading' started by John9999, Oct 4, 2018.

  1. John9999

    John9999

    Well, here I am again. Somewhere between totally confused and partially informed.
    I have been thru alot and still have not come up with a trading strategy and plan that will work for me.

    I need to find a strategy for Emini Futures that has very little to interpret to execute. I do not do well when there are too many indicators to interpret and then execute. Almost like a "green light / Red light" package like Wisetrade had before they went out of business.

    I seem to be unable to interpret and execute and then manage the trade. I am okay with that.

    I have used many systems, but nothing has really worked for me after approx 7 years of effort. I have used MACD, Bollinger Bands, Ketler Channels, Support/resistance systems, etc...


    any suggestions are greatly appreciated.
     
  2. Robert Morse

    Robert Morse Sponsor

    Have to keep a journal and records of what worked for you and what did not? I would go back 7 years and do a review. Find your own way. It's in there.
     
    soulfire, dealmaker and cafeole like this.
  3. Dollar cost average the S&P is your best odds. You won’t find verified real-time black box systems for sale. All simulated offerings exist to enrichen the designers.
     
    schweiz, SimpleMeLike and soulfire like this.
  4. Maybe reconsider this. The ES is extremely crowded and big money fights over pennies. Any signal you see is going to be painfully diluted, and extremely complex (triggering all the 'signals' while also not failing any of the fakes tests). It's a bit like starting to learn boxing by stepping into the ring with Mike Tyson (contempt for the rules and all!)

    If you want to find something that will give you easy, base-hits; it cannot be a crowded space. Once someone else figures out they're easy your strategy is done. And there's a lot of people in the ES trying to figure that out--more than anywhere else, in fact.

    Some of the dated studies (if it's available native on a platform, it's dated) are still relevant in less crowded spaces, but chopped to pieces in the heavily traded spaces.
     
    comagnum likes this.
  5. I’ll give it up. After looking at years of tick data and data mining what I have found is that the trading session itself is broken into, trend and mean reversion.

    10:00-12:00 is trending

    12:00-14:00 is mean reversion

    Any entry signal you take for trend interval should have a high probability of working. The trend signal could be SR break or EMA crossover.

    The noon interval more often than not it mean reverts. To survive you need to absolutely adhere to risk management. And you may even need to hard code it into platform. If 9/10 entry signals have a edge but you don’t have risk management down. Than it only takes 1 outsized loss to set you back 10 trades worth profit.

    When volatility levels are increasing, tick movements will trend, so don’t look to mean revert unless a major trend line is breaking or EMA crossover. ES has optimal stoploss profit tick ratios. 16:16 ticks is what I have modeled. 4 points.

    What is off? Entries or risk management? If ES needs to move 50 points in a session, it can only be done during those intervals mentioned.
     
    toucan, ElectricSavant and rb7 like this.
  6. I run profitable simulations in less crowded spaces, but it’s still a double-edged sword. The intraday ranges are wider, but it’s extremely hard to quantify entry points, and exit slippage. If left choiceless, I’d run these models, but always in a bottomless pit of uncertainty.
     
  7. dealmaker

    dealmaker

    Struggles are part of the journey. Take time off reflect, go over your journals & trades and at one point it will all come together.
     
    John9999 likes this.
  8. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    What if the issue is just you...the trader ???

    Thus, no matter what strategy (simple or complex) you use, you will not be profitable because the real issue is you the trader...not the tools.

    I only say the above because its something you need to look into after you've been at it for 7 years and nothing has worked for you and/or you have not been able to design something on your own that works for you.

    7 years is a long time of not having any success. Yet, if you ever had any success even if it was for a few weeks or few months, why didn't you stick with what ever it was ???

    Trading isn't easy, takes a ton of work and I truly believe it begins with issues involving the trader and not the tools being used. In fact, successful trading involves more than just strategies.

    wrbtrader
     
  9. maxinger

    maxinger

    We don't know what is in your sub conscious mind ( the eeprom of our mind).
    This is something you want to look at because if subconcious mind is not cooperating, nothing will work out.

    I don't use
    MACD, Bollinger Bands, Ketler Channels, Support/resistance systems, etc...
    Personally I find them to be nuisance and useless.

    anyway we are not born to be trader.
    we have to develop our own holy grail.
     
  10. John9999

    John9999

    Oh I’ve had succes or I’d given up long ago. I just cannot seem to find consistent success.
    What has worked the best are strategies focused on price action. After all isn’t that what really matters any way.
    Probably this time to regroup is good for me.
     
    #10     Oct 4, 2018