first, I don't trade IC, the risk/reward makes no sense to me, seen too many traders burned by these, with that said, quick look at a chart doesnt show me any recent time that XLE was consolidating enough to do an IC, the bear call spread might have been ok to do. I am also very careful trading any thing oil related, it is a very manipulated market, especially with the Aramco IPO on the horizon.
I'm not so sure. except for the recent change in February. this ETF traded within a narrow range and in fact was within the range of my short strikes since 2017. for three months it traded in a five point range before that time. Although the IV was high at the time I made a call that seemed to be a high probability one. My mistakes was not adjusting when I had the chance. I still believe this will bear fruit and I've learned a lot in the meantime, including where to branch out and perhaps where a bear call spread instead of an IC. I am currently reading "crude volatility" by Robert McNally. A very interesting take on the history of oil price manipulation and the efforts to normalize that market. -K