Need help on position sizing/risk - 86% win rate - .5% per trade

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by frostengine, Jun 17, 2021.

  1. hanneswas

    hanneswas

    Well, you can limit them.
    Here comes the trick i was looking for for some years. I discovered it by accident.

    A) Book about trading psychology (bulletproof trader) say we should practice to visualise the worst/difficult situation in order to train your brain to not to flip out every time the market goes against you.

    B) i started to use the MT5 "visualization" feature while running a backtest. There you can interact with the UI elements of you EA.
    What does it mean? If you add buy/sell/close buttons you could replay the market with high speed on 1h candles for example and train manual trading.

    C) now, i added to my ea (which scales position as described above) the ui elements which enable to open a new position with automatically predefined lot size. So if the EA has already opened one or more positions in the same direction, the next entry is predefined up to the timing (lot size is computed using the previous one etc).

    D) Now, when i started to replay the EA backtest i discovered that if I limit the number of automatically opened positions to 5 and the Dd continues to increase (see fomc news in June given a short position in usdchf), i have one or two trials to trigger new positions. That means if the EA is out of sync with the market i can enter the game and fix it. I just need to wait 2-3 days to be sure not to trigger additional positions too early.

    This way, the DD from the backtest with max EA positions=7 is reduced by 50% or more if I set max position to 5 and interact manually once in a month or so.


    See? And there is nothing about AI, TA or any direction guessing from astrology. Pure mechanical engineering on the market noise.
     
    #31     Aug 16, 2021
    murray t turtle likes this.
  2. destriero

    destriero


    It's shit. No offense intended.
     
    #32     Aug 16, 2021
  3. %%
    Good points.
    BUT like the Aussie Trader[D Guppy] noted ''never confuse a high probability with infallibiity''
    He got his trader office flooded once. Great quote.
     
    #33     Aug 16, 2021
  4. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    If I'm not mistaken still haven't seen any long/short (or inverse ETF's) breakdown.
     
    #34     Aug 16, 2021
    murray t turtle likes this.
  5. ph1l

    ph1l

    #35     Aug 16, 2021
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    #36     Aug 16, 2021
  7. ph1l

    ph1l

    Sorry, I misunderstood what you meant by "breakdown."
     
    #37     Aug 16, 2021