Go easy people, Iâm a newbie. Hopefully around (with money) a little longer than Ripley, but unfortunately probably not half as entertaining. Hereâs my problem, oils gone a bit bonkers but thatâs been on the cards since the Chinese decided to develop a yuppie culture. I donât know about America, but in England at present you canât pick up the phone without getting a cold call from an Asian call centre flogging some mobile phone tariff or other tech productâ¦â¦â¦â¦â¦with apparently the highest level of customer serviceâ¦â¦â¦â¦.how exactly does that works when communicating in broken English I do not know. Anyway, back to the point, loads of steel structure builds, a naive materialist outlook and an enormous appetite to drink oil for breakfast, lunch and dinner taking no bank holidays off will see the consumption of stocks sore. Oil is levering its way back to a price conceivable given the time span on news received, over reacting markets is the target for my trades. I see oil fluctuating and levelling out around $61.00 over the next 2 weeks. The Dow and s&p therefore are radically overstated given its recent magnified dependence on the price of oil. The rally of oil to over $56.00 in March took the Dow down to 10000 respectively, where is the confidence we are now seeing based? Please bear in mind the penultimate time oil reached $55.00 the Dow dropped to below 9800. Not too much has changed since march, the housing bubble was been talked about, the threat of terrorism is always on the minds of traders, and may I point out, the twin towers date is ever more important given the recent London bombings. To me that seems to leave us all a bit unbalanced. I agree with Brandon in the fact everyone seems to be taking the optimistic approach to a bullish market. People are talking of a rally from here, how high are you thinking for the Dow and s&p? Hereâs my uneducated, also uncorrupted, view on the future. As mentioned earlier, oil will drop to approx $61.00 over the next 2 weeks perhaps making $65.00 once more on a peek and the Dow /s&p will rally to about 10730, then I think the market will re-evaluate the situation. Providing no more external events alter the market I still see the Dow dropping to around 10500. This position will put us back to Feb. 04 but obviously oil was around $36.00 so that more than allows for the growth seen in the economy since that time. I know oil seems to be close to my heart, but if you were getting taxed 60p for every 20p you spend on petrol it would be close to yours too! Iâm a newbie and never placed a real trade, Iâm still researching and looking for hints on trading. Spin me around, dress me down or spank my ass, as log as your comments are productive let rip! Iâll probably get this way wrong! I did manage to turn my Â£20000 spread betting account into Â£50000 in a few month but ironically oil killed it down to levels I dare not disclose to anyone other than a true friend! Thanks for reading. Pete.